NFL Week 8 Swinger’s Best Bets: Early, Late and Monday Night Winners on Tap
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Swinging Johnson
- October 28, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Bills -3 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinger extended his handicapping drought to three weeks as his NFL picks went 1-2 against the number in Week 7. But with new challenges come new opportunities, and Week 8 in the NFL has plenty of each, so let’s go!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 7-13-1 ATS (-26.27 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
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Week 7 Recap (1-2 ATS, -5.47 units)
I’ve always said that the only person who wants to hear a bad beat story is the one telling it. There’s nothing more pedantic than someone droning on and on about their betting misfortune.
Oh, and don’t you just love it when they get one small detail wrong, like saying the second quarter instead of the third quarter when the bad thing happened, before they immediately correct themselves and say, “Excuse me, sorry, sorry, that was the third quarter.”
Yeah, my eyes are glazed, and I’ve got that three Quaalude look accompanied by a lithium drip resting face, and I’m really going to be thrown into a confused panic if all the facts don’t line up just right and aren’t presented as though it’s going in front of a grand freakin’ jury!
Thus, I will not talk about the litany of injuries to key players during the precise games that have occurred on teams I have chosen to bet on this season because those issues are just out of my hands and can’t be factored into the handicapping equation. Nope, you can visit Pity City, but you just can’t live there, so with that, let’s recap another unfortunate week in the NFL.
In Week 7, I bet the Browns +6, and they lost by seven to the Bengals, costing me four units before I blew another three units on Miami +3, which fell to the Colts, 16-10. Naturally, my lowest unit game of the day clicked when I won 2 units on the Raiders +7 as they covered against the Rams.
Another underwhelming 1-2 ATS mark, but better days are ahead, kids, and I plan on proving that right now!
Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 27, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
I’m assuming Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love will go unscathed and the gambling gods will take pity on my recent spate of unfortunate player injuries whilst on the field of battle, and he will go on to torch this loathsome Jacksonville secondary. I know, it’s a lot to ask considering the way my luck has gone this season, but I promised not to bitch and moan about bad beats, so I’ll leave it at that. I am bitching and moaning, aren’t I?
The Packers are coming off a big win over the Texans and are playing a lousy team in Jacksonville with the 27th-ranked defensive EPA. The Packers also have a big showdown next week against the Lions. It smells like a trap game to me.
However, the Jags could come out flat in this one after celebrating their victory over the hapless New England Patriots. Their blindside tackle Cam Robinson is questionable after sustaining a head injury last week, which means Trevor Lawrence could have a backup protecting him against a ferocious Packers’ pass rush.
I just can’t ignore the talent disparity here, despite my trepidation about Green Bay looking ahead to their date with the Lions. However, I will refrain from burying the Packers with a 5-unit play and instead cut it down to 3 units and cross my fingers.
NFL Pick: Packers -3½ for 3 units (-105) at Bovada
Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 27, 2024 – 04:05 PM ET at Lumen Field
I’m not sold on the Seahawks as being a legitimate playoff threat, and now that their star receiver, DK Metcalf, is likely out of this game due to a sprained MCL he suffered against the Falcons, I’m looking to both fade the Hawks and endorse the Bills in this spot.
Josh Allen now has Amari Cooper to replace Stefon Diggs, whom the team traded in the offseason, giving the Bills’ offense a much-needed boost of energy. After getting last week as an opportunity to get to know each other in which Cooper caught 4 of 5 passes thrown his way for 66 yards and a touchdown, I expect the box score in this contest to reflect a coming out party for the former Cleveland Browns receiver.
The Bills destroyed the Titans last week, 34-10, much like the Seahawks dispatched the Falcons, 34-14, but there are a few levels between a top-tier quarterback like Josh Allen and a mid-tier passer like Geno Smith. We should also note Seattle’s pass defense ranks 28th in the league, which, unto itself, gives us solid footing to make a bet on Allen and the Bills.
NFL Pick: Bills -3 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, October 28, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
It’s time to take advantage of the public’s overreaction to the Giants’ lopsided 28-3 loss to the Eagles and the Steelers 37-15 thrashing of the Jets. Joe Q. Public will be licking all three of his teeth to bury the Steelers and wait for the bookie to pay him.
But I’m going to be the abject contrarian here. I am not sold on the Steelers’ offense, and here’s another interesting tidbit for you to contemplate. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin’s squads are 15-27 ATS after winning by margins of 14 points the previous week and being installed as favorites the following week. Now I’ll never be accused of being a mathlete, but after firing up IBM’s latest supercomputer, the results are in, and 37 minus 15 is indeed 22. Yes, the Steelers beat the Jets by 22 last week, and that, my friends, means this scenario is in play.
Look, the Giants scare me; they’re not a good team, but they have a very good pass rush and rank 7th against the pass, allowing just 179.4 yards per game. The verdict is out on the Steelers’ new quarterback, Russell Wilson, and I’m not going to christen him the Russ Wilson of old just because he had one good game after a series of clunkers in Denver.
The biggest concern for me is that New York’s starting left tackle, Andrew Thomas, is not coming back after a foot injury against the Bengals in Week 6. He’s done for the year, which is bad news for Daniel Jones. Nevertheless, this spread is too high, so let’s grab those points on Monday night!
NFL Pick: Giants +6½ (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Corner (2-5 ATS)
I’m not sure there’s a feasible number that would make me put my hard-earned money on those abominations from Carolina and New England this year. The Woodman may very likely agree after he advised a play on the Patriots +6 only to watch them get destroyed, 32-16, by the lackluster Jaguars.
I’m to blame as well because I also thought the number was appealing but only slowed my roll on the Pats because the Jags had been in London for two weeks and were familiar with the venue and had adjusted their internal clocks, etc.
However, the Woodman is coming back with another big hound this week in the New Orleans Saints +7½ as they will try to defuse the Bolts in SoFi Stadium.
Woodman’s Pick: Saints +7½ (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
