NFL Pick: Vikings +5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinger went 2-1 against the number last week and cut his deficit down 1.8 units in what has been two consecutive winning weeks after a painful start to the season. Let’s see what the man has up his sleeve this week with three more NFL picks at the top sportsbooks, as he looks for his first sweep of the season!
- Twitter: @SwingeratBMR
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 10-14 ATS (-19.97 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 8 Recap
Oh, we were so close to our first sweep of the season. But had I known Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud would switch jerseys last Sunday, I would have avoided blowing 4 units on the Texans as they bowed to the lowly Panthers, 15-13, as 3-point road chalk. However, after that, things markedly improved as the Seahawks earned us 2 units with a 24-20 victory over the Browns, covering as 3-point home favorites.
But the best was yet to come as we laid the lumber on the Lions -8, along with millions of other squares, while the sharps pounced on the other side, bringing the line down to -7 at kickoff. And as hard as the Lions tried to give this game away, the Raiders were simply too inept to seize the moment.
And that wasn’t all that surprising considering Las Vegas averages 16 points per game, which was the primary reason why I bet 4 units on the Lions. Final score: Lions 25 – Raiders 14.
Overall, we made 1.8 units for the week which doesn’t sound like much but when you’re dying of thirst in the desert, you don’t ask if the water is Avion. Let’s keep on plugging.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Key Stats
- Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Atlanta.
- Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
Yes, the Vikings will play their first game without Kirk Cousins, thus the inflated point spread in this one. But is the sky really falling in Minnesota or will they be okay with Jaren Hall under center?
I think the 25-year-old rookie out of BYU will be just fine as long as he keeps throwing to big targets like T.J. Hockenson who should devour the woeful coverage he will see from a lackluster Falcons’ linebacking corps.
It appears as though Taylor Heinicke will replace Desmond Ridder this week under center for the Falcons but to me, it’s six of one or half a dozen of the other. And if wideout Drake London can’t make it or is compromised in some way after suffering a groin injury, then it will be Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier trying to find daylight against a stout Vikings run-stop unit.
The Pick
Look, there is always the possibility the moment gets too big for the kid but I don’t think the Vikings offensive coordinator, Wes Phillips, will ask him to do too much. He has talented weapons around him and this is shaping up as a low-scoring affair with the Vikings keeping it within the margins or, perhaps, pulling the upset.
NFL Pick: Vikings +5 (-108) at Heritage Sports – For 4 units
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Lambeau Field
Key Stats
- Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Green Bay is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games played in Week 9.
- Green Bay is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
What do you think of Jordan Love? I’m beginning to believe the Packers paid a first-round price for a fourth-round talent. Oh, and they alienated Aaron Rodgers in the process, which means this kid should be playing at a Pro Bowl level for Green Bay to get out of him what they sacrificed.
Anyway, he’s got 11 touchdowns to 8 picks and has a 57.7 completion percentage and 78.2 passer rating. Can you say, “serviceable backup”? Well, I certainly can and I believe that’s precisely what the Packers have under center on Sunday.
The Packers won’t be able to run effectively against this Rams defense because they can’t run against anybody – currently ranked 24th in rushing – but they are also ranked 23rd in passing. And although the Rams aren’t a powerhouse any longer, Matthew Stafford can still sling it, but if his finger injury precludes him from playing then veteran Brett Rypien will hand the rock to Darrell Henderson Jr. and watch him move the chains.
The Pick
Once again, I like grabbing points on teams playing against weak offenses. That certainly doesn’t make me unique, but it is surprising how little we hear or read handicappers talking about this. Which is why this is more of a fade against the Packers than an endorsement of the Rams.
NFL Pick: Rams +3 (+102) at Heritage Sports – For 3 units
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Key Stats
- Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
- Tampa Bay is 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games.
- Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
The Bucs have Baker Mayfield leading the No. 17 ranked passing attack but nursing a knee contusion entering this matchup. The Texans have a rising star in C.J. Stroud who was forced to eat a little humble pie in last week’s underwhelming performance against the Panthers. But which quarterback would you choose?
Your answer will go a long way towards predicting which side you’re betting on because neither of these teams run the ball very well, with the Texans checking in at No. 23 (91.9 RYG) while the Bucs are ranked 30th (77.9 RYG).
The Pick
The Bucs are one of those clubs whose record (3-4) is better than they truly are, which is why the lines in their games are misleading. Tampa Bay has gone 2-2 ATS over their last four but they won’t cover this meager number, as the Texans will win this one by a touchdown or better.
NFL Pick: Texans -2½ (-118) at Heritage Sports – For 3 units
The Woodman’s Corner (2-6 ATS)
The Woodman can confirm that bears do poop in the woods, but little did he know that “da Bears” would poop out a profanely anemic effort on Sunday night in a nationally televised game. When the dust settled, the LA Chargers secured a 30-13 victory over Chicago and the nine-point head start he got didn’t even begin to sniff a cover in that one.
Okay, it’s time to move on to greener pastures, those where the buffalo roam and the deer and the antelope play. The Woodman, with no farm left, says to bet the Bills and leave a few bucks in his tip jar if they cover.
Woodman’s Pick: Bills +3 (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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