NFL Pick: Dolphins-Chiefs Over 50.5 (-110) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
The NFL’s Week 9 schedule is loaded with some real gems starting with the Chiefs-Dolphins game in Germany. But we will also see the first NFC East matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas is trying to prevent the Eagles from becoming the first team to repeat as division champions since the Eagles did it in 2001-04.
After shining a microscope on the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review, we picked out our top spreads or totals for your Week 9 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Tyreek Hill Faces Former Team
It may not get much better than this game in the NFL’s regular season this year. The Chiefs and Dolphins are both 6-2 and sit No. 1 and No. 2 in the current AFC standings. Tyreek Hill is a favorite for Offensive Player of the Year, and his presence in Miami is keeping Tua Tagovailoa in the MVP race right alongside Patrick Mahomes.
This game could decide so much going forward this season, and it is a big one for both teams to correct their narratives. The Chiefs are a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 50.5 points. We have the over in mind.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 09:30 AM EST at Frankfurt Stadium
Will Miami Score on and Beat a Good Team?
The narrative on the 2023 Dolphins is a familiar one in NFL history. Great offense, smart coaching and design, record-setting speed, but they got crushed in the only 2 games where they played a good opponent (Bills and Eagles), and the defense has not impressed.
That’s a good recipe for playoff disappointment as Mike McDaniels’ team has a strength of victory against teams that have won 28.3% of their games this season. That ranks 31st in the league and is easily the weakest for any team with a winning record right now.
This goes back to last season too as the Dolphins have not beaten a playoff team since the Bills in Week 3 of the 2022 season. Since then, we watched them go 0-6 against 2022 playoff teams, and they’ve already lost 48-20 to the Bills and 31-17 to the Eagles this year on the road.
The Clash for AFC Supremacy
If the Dolphins don’t want to hear about how they can’t beat a good team, then maybe they should show us they can beat a good team. The defending champions from Kansas City would count, and we know Tyreek Hill has this game circled as it’ll be his first against his former team.
Hill is averaging 126.8 receiving yards per game to lead the league, he eyes the first 2,000-yard receiving season, and you know he’ll want to have a big game against a Kansas City defense that looks better than ever in the Patrick Mahomes era.
The Chiefs just allowed a season-high 24 points to Denver, but that was misleading as thanks to 5 turnovers, Denver started every scoring drive in Kansas City territory. Denver only finished with 240 yards of offense, including 87 net passing yards.
If the Dolphins can hang a nice point total on this defense in a game of this magnitude, then they will be the new Super Bowl favorite in the AFC and in control of the No. 1 seed.
Can the Chiefs Still Keep Up in a Shootout?
The Chiefs are not giving up the title without a fight, but we see why no team has been able to repeat since the 2003-04 Patriots. It is so hard in this league when you lose players and other teams improve. But the Chiefs have not drafted well, and it is hurting them at wide receiver as Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Rashee Rice are just not an acceptable group of replacements for Tyreek Hill.
Travis Kelce is still great, but if a defense can do whatever it can to take him away, then who do the Chiefs go to? Even the running game is too inconsistent to rely on. But the turnovers have been a big problem as the Chiefs are minus-4 in that differential with 16 giveaways already this season. The Chiefs only had 23 giveaways in 17 games last season, so they are on pace for over 32 this year.
Mahomes’ Elite Season
Mahomes is still having an elite season in what is a weak year for quarterback play around the league, but if he has to score 30-plus points to win a game like this, we do not know if he can still do it with this cast. The Chiefs have already been held under 21 points in 4 games this year, which is a game shy of the 2021 season when they did that 5 times, still the most in any season with Mahomes since 2018.
But after a 5-turnover game and Mahomes having the flu, maybe the team needed that loss in Denver to refocus and improve. This is a good week for people to turn on the Chiefs and back Miami as the hot new thing in the AFC, but if history has shown us anything, it’s usually the more balanced, former championship team that succeeds over the latest flash in the pan team.
The Pick
This game will do a lot for the narratives of the 2023 NFL season. Rather than make a prediction on the spread, we’ll just take the over with both teams having a lot to prove with their offenses led by the top MVP candidates. A 27-26 game to start Sunday would be excellent.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 27 – Chiefs 26
NFL Pick: Over 50.5 (-110) at BetAnySports
First to 20 Wins in Houston?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans are coming off disappointing losses in Week 8. Neither team has been lighting up the scoreboard as of late, but there are some talented receivers on both teams with Nico Collins (Texans) and Mike Evans (Buccaneers).
The Texans are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 40 points. We are looking at the under.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium
Baker’s Rough Month
Remember when the Buccaneers were 3-1, and Baker Mayfield was ranked in the top 10 in QBR, showing a great connection to Mike Evans and more mobility than Tom Brady ever had?
Well, the Buccaneers are 0-3 since their bye week and have barely averaged 12 points per game during the losing streak. That includes an 8-point touchdown drive in Buffalo that was the stuff of legends with multiple 4th downs overcome thanks to penalties on the Bills, a touchdown on 4th-and-10 that deflected off a defender, and a 2-point conversion that also was tipped in the end zone. Pure luck just to get to 18 points in another loss.
Tampa Bay’s performance this season has largely been opponent based, and while Houston is not a strong opponent, DeMeco Ryans knows how to coach defense. The Texans have already won at home twice in holding the Saints to 13 points and the Steelers to 6 points this season.
With Tampa Bay’s running game still ranked 30th in yards and 31st in yards per carry, it would not be surprising to see a one-dimensional offense led by Mayfield get held under 20 points in this game.
Todd Bowles vs. C.J. Stroud
Quarterback C.J. Stroud is still a favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he did have a quiet game in Carolina in a 15-13 loss. The Texans have not topped 20 points in 5-of-7 games this season, so they are not ready for shootouts yet.
The Texans still have a league-low 4 takeaways, but again, look at the 49ers and the offensive system that Houston is trying to copy. The 49ers have turned into a turnover machine with Brock Purdy leading the way as of late. Not saying it is likely that will happen to Stroud too, but it would not be surprising to see a rookie quarterback start to struggle with more blunders as the season wears on.
Todd Bowles is a veteran defensive coach who is not afraid to blitz and speed up Stroud’s decision making. The Buccaneers still have talent at each level of the defense, and Tampa has not allowed more than 25 points in any game this season.
The Pick
The computer score looks more than solid in this one. It is hard to see both teams reaching 20 points. Not only does Tampa Bay struggle to run, but the Texans are 30th in yards per carry and 25th in the red zone.
We’ll trust the defensive coaches to set the tone for this one, won’t trust Mayfield and Stroud, and gladly take the under in this game for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Texans 21 – Buccaneers 17
NFL Pick: Under 40 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Eagles to Stay on Top of NFC East?
Unlike last season, it looks like we will finally get a Cowboys-Eagles game with Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts at quarterback. Last year, backups Cooper Rush (Cowboys) and Gardner Minshew (Eagles) started losses for their teams as Prescott and Hurts missed the big encounters with injuries. But they are healthy coming into this one and both threw 4 touchdown passes on Sunday.
The Eagles are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 46 points.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 04:25 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
The Steady Eagles
Just like last season, the Eagles (7-1) have the best record in the NFL through 8 games. They have not been as dominant as they were a year ago, but the offense is steady and reliable. Jalen Hurts has passed for over 270 yards in 6 straight games, and that is directly correlated with A.J. Brown setting an NFL record with 6 straight games of 125 receiving yards.
The Brotherly Shove (Tush Push) is Philadelphia’s signature short-yardage play, but it did have a hiccup in Washington last week when Hurts fumbled on a 1st-and-goal at the 1 when trying to run the play. But generally, they are close to unstoppable on that play and it gives them a big edge in short yardage.
The defense is not going to reach the 70-sack level the 2022 unit had, but the defense has mostly been solid. Washington is surprisingly the only team to crack 30 points on these Eagles, and the Commanders did it twice. But we have watched Philadelphia shut down the Miami offense better than anyone this season.
The last time the Eagles played Dallas, Dak Prescott survived a pick-6 and 6 sacks to throw for nearly 350 yards, he converted a 3rd-and-30 in the 4th quarter, and he led Dallas to a 40-34 win.
Prescott is 3-0 against Nick Sirianni’s Eagles since 2021, throwing 11 touchdowns to 1 interception in those games. But this is the first time Sirianni will be at home with Hurts at quarterback to take on Dak. The Eagles are going to have to score a fair amount to win this one, but they usually deliver on offense at home.
The Volatile Cowboys
Can the Cowboys ever play a normal game anymore? Six of the first 7 Dallas games have been decided by 12 or more points this season. They were up 26-3 early in the 2nd quarter against the Rams before winning 43-20, another unique score that’s never happened before in NFL history before Sunday.
It is hard to evaluate this team when they are in the weirdest game scripts like a 16-0 lead against the Giants after a single quarter in Week 1, or when they were blown out 42-10 in San Francisco in Week 5.
Dak Prescott has only thrown 21 passes in the 2nd half of one-score games this season. In comparison, Jalen Hurts (106) and Patrick Mahomes (103) have the most passes and over 5 times as many as Prescott in that situation.
This might be impressive for Dallas if we didn’t already see this team lose as a 12.5-point favorite in Arizona and get blown out by a San Francisco team that has done nothing but lose ever since.
The Pick
The Cowboys are such a talented but volatile team. That can serve them well in an upset, but their inconsistency dooms them in making a deep playoff run to get back to the Super Bowl. Games like this are where the coaching mistakes usually catch up, and until Dallas starts showing it can outdo the best teams in the biggest games, there is no reason to pick them to deliver.
Specifically in this matchup, Brown is on a tear, and the Cowboys do not have Trevon Diggs, who is a turnover creator for them. Making the Eagles turn it over several times has been key to beating them since 2022, and I do not see the Cowboys doing that to them this weekend.
Trust the Eagles to cover at home and take the 1st key matchup in the NFC East.
Score Prediction: Eagles 27 – Cowboys 22
NFL Pick: Eagles -3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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