NFL Pick: Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 9 schedule looks great, and the best game will hopefully be Sunday’s Germany battle between the Dolphins and Chiefs. We have a prop pick for a player most will overlook in that game. We also have prop picks in games where the Vikings will move on without Kirk Cousins, the Raiders will be happy to play without Josh McDaniels (fired), and Justin Herbert gives it another try in prime time against a strong defense in New York.
We have 5 of our favorite player props for Week 9, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 09:30 AM EST at Frankfurt Stadium
Justin Watson (Kansas City Chiefs)
When you hear Chiefs vs. Dolphins, you are naturally going to think about Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill before any of the other receivers. Then you can think about Jaylen Waddle as Miami’s No. 2 speedster, Raheem Mostert as a touchdown vulture in the Miami backfield, the hard running of Isiah Pacheco for the Chiefs, and Rashee Rice starting to emerge as a rookie wide receiver.
You might even think about some of Kansas City’s most mistake-prone players like Skyy Moore (2nd-round bust), Mecole Hardman (muffed punt in Denver last week), and Kadarius Toney (that awful drop to pick in Week 1 vs. Detroit).
So, why are we highlighting Justin Watson in a game with so many bigger name players? It’s for the value.
Chiefs’ Top Deep Threat
While the Chiefs brought in Marquez Valdes-Scantling from Green Bay last year to be their deep threat, it was Watson who caught the only touchdown pass thrown more than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage by Patrick Mahomes in 2022.
This season, Watson is 3rd on the team with 261 receiving yards and he even missed a game. He is still the best deep threat on the Chiefs right now, and he has gone over 16.5 receiving yards in 5-of-7 games.
It would have been 6-of-7 games, but Watson dropped his only target deep down the field against Denver in Week 6, and he landed awkwardly and was injured on the play. He returned last week to face Denver again, and he had catches of 27 and 15 yards on a rough day for the passing game.
In a game expected to be an offensive showcase, Watson is a great pick to hit his over as his usage in this offense usually means he can clear 16.5 yards on 1 catch.
The Pick
Not only does Watson usually clear 16.5 yards this year, but his top 5 games have all gone over 41.5 yards, so he clears this mark with ease. If the Dolphins are smart enough to limit Travis Kelce, then there is simply not much else that’s great for Mahomes to throw to. Watson needs to show up with a big catch or 2 in this game.
NFL Pick: Justin Watson Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-112) at Bovada
Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings)
This line feels very low as Jordan Addison has stepped up as the No. 1 receiver with Justin Jefferson (hamstring) sidelined, and that will be the case again this week.
Understandably, there is concern for the Minnesota passing offense now that Kirk Cousins is out for the season with a torn Achilles. Enter Jaren Hall, a 5th-round rookie from BYU who is definitely not on the level of prospect that Will Levis was for the Titans.
But we mention Levis because he stepped up with a huge game in his debut last week against this Atlanta defense. He passed for 235 yards and 4 touchdowns, and he got a huge game out of DeAndre Hopkins for an offense that had minimal passing success this season with Ryan Tannehill.
What we’re saying is the wild card can produce great results, and Hall is a wild card. But Addison has looked great for a rookie, and he has gone over 50 yards in 6-of-8 games this season. He just has to keep doing what he usually does in this game, which will be played indoors (perfect weather), against an unimpressive Atlanta defense.
The Pick
We may not know much about Jaren Hall, but we know quite a bit about head coach Kevin O’Connell. He is a pass-first coach who loves getting the ball to his No.1 wideout (Cooper Kupp in Los Angeles and Justin Jefferson in Minnesota). With Jefferson out, that player is Addison, who looks polished for a rookie.
We’ll take our chances that Hall and Addison can connect enough to hit this over as the Vikings just do not have a reliable running game to grind this game out that way. The game script also could favor Minnesota throwing out of necessity to keep up as the Falcons are a 3.5-point home favorite.
NFL Pick: Jordan Addison Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium
Mac Jones (New England Patriots)
Mac Jones may be publicly sad that Josh McDaniels was fired by the Raiders this week, but he might be one of the few people on Earth who is happy at the prospect of him possibly coming back to coach with the Patriots.
McDaniels was the offensive coordinator in Jones’ 2021 rookie season, which is still his best year under Bill Belichick. Jones has struggled since McDaniels took the Las Vegas job in 2022. He has thrown an interception in 6-of-8 games this year and barely has more touchdown passes (9) than picks (8).
But we think the game script this week is a favorable one that will help Jones avoid throwing any interceptions. The Washington defense just traded Montez Sweat (Bears) and Chase Young (49ers) this week, so what was already a weak defense just got weaker for the time being. Those players led the Commanders with 11 sacks between them.
So, if the pass rush is weaker for Washington, then that should improve Jones’ chances of not getting picked as he is not good under pressure.
The Pick
Guess which 2 games Jones did not get intercepted in this season? It was the wins against the Jets and Bills, games where the Patriots played with an early lead, and he did not have to force things.
Sam Howell, who you could bet to throw an interception in this game (-145 at Bovada), is the kind of quarterback who Belichick can exploit for mistakes with sacks and turnovers. This should give the 3-point favored Patriots a leg up in taking an early lead and allowing Jones to play comfortably so that he does not get picked.
NFL Pick: Mac Jones Under 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+100) at Bovada
New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 04:25 PM EST at Allegiant Stadium
Josh Jacobs (Las Vegas Raiders)
This has been a rough season for Josh Jacobs after he won the rushing title last year with 97.2 rushing yards per game. That number has dropped to 51.0 yards per game this year, the rushing success rate has fallen by 10 percentage points, and Jacobs is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry.
But the good news is Josh McDaniels is gone, and while the Raiders still have plenty of issues up front and at quarterback, they should rejoice this week and get some greater play out of skill players we know can do it like Jacobs and Davante Adams.
The 2023 stats are bad numbers for Jacobs, but he does catch a lot of passes, and he has scored a touchdown in 3-of-5 games coming into this week. He also gets a bad New York defense that ranks 29th in yards per carry and has already allowed 10 rushing touchdowns (ranked 28th).
The Pick
The other line of thought with this game is that with rookie Aidan O’Connell starting at quarterback, the Raiders may look to pound Jacobs in the red zone and not rely on the young passer to make tight-window throws for touchdowns.
The prediction is the Raiders have their best scoring game of the season without McDaniels, and Jacobs getting a short touchdown (or 2) will be part of that script.
NFL Pick: Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-120) at Bovada
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets
Monday, November 06, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at MetLife Stadium
Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
Let’s start by acknowledging that Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today, and a team like the Jets would jump at the opportunity if the Chargers were to offer him in a trade.
However, there is this growing narrative with Herbert that he throws back-breaking interceptions, and this is why he is 28-29 as a starter in his career (playoff loss included).
The truth is the Chargers are only batting around .500 in Herbert’s career because the defense has been terrible, and they do their usual bits of Chargering in late games to blow leads. Herbert has not been perfect, but he is the best part of the team.
Prime-Time Interception Trend
But there is some Tony Romo in Dallas type of effect going on here where Herbert does seem to experience his worst interceptions at the wrong moments in games watched by national audiences:
- Out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in prime time since 2021, Herbert has the 6th-lowest interception rate (1.6%).
- Herbert has thrown an interception in 9 of his last 12 prime-time games going back to November 2021.
- In each game, he only threw 1 interception, but 7-of-9 interceptions were in the 4th quarter.
- Six of the 7 interceptions happened when the Chargers were in a 1-score game in the 4th quarter.
Taking that all in, that means if you watched Herbert in prime time the last 2 years, there was a 50/50 shot he’d get picked in the final quarter of a close game. That is higher than most quarterbacks, and that is going to create a narrative when the Chargers usually lose these games in prime time.
They are favored this week, but the Jets have been able to win some improbable games with comebacks, and if there is any franchise in the league that can blow a game they looked like they were going to win… You see where this is going.
The Pick
Monday night has been a graveyard for offenses this season, and while it usually is the underdog that implodes, the Chargers do not exactly inspire much confidence with the way they play under coach Brandon Staley.
If the Jets can intercept Josh Allen (3), Jalen Hurts (3), and Patrick Mahomes (2) a combined 8 times this season, what makes Herbert so unlikely to not give them another pick? He just better hope it does not come at the worst possible moment again, or the narrative is going to have a new chapter in a game with a lot of eyeballs on it.
We will take the defense to intercept Herbert for your NFL picks to close Week 9.
NFL Pick: Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+100) at Bovada
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