Top NFL Pick: Under 41.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NFL’s Week 9 schedule has an excellent choice for Sunday Night Football when the Buffalo Bills meet the Cincinnati Bengals. It was one of last season’s highly anticipated games before the Damar Hamlin health crisis ended the game in the first quarter, so hopefully everything will go smoothly and safely this time around as it is a top AFC matchup with the Bengals playing well again.
We also have picks to start the week with the Titans in Pittsburgh as Will Levis is expected to make his 2nd-straight start for Tennessee. The Chargers are right back in prime time against the Jets on Monday night.
We have our top NFL picks for each night of prime-time games in Week 9, which you can always find at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Back to Chargering in Prime Time?
The Chargers led by at least 17 points for the entire 2nd half against Chicago last Sunday night, something the team had not done in its previous 60 games. But with the scrappy Jets bringing their defense to this matchup, it could be a classic night of Chargering this Monday.
The Chargers are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 41.5 points. We are thinking about the under.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets
Monday, November 06, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Justin Herbert vs. Elite Defense
The Chargers and Justin Herbert looked great against the Bears last week, but let’s not confuse the 2023 Bears for a legitimate defense. The closest thing the Chargers have played to the Jets were the games against Dallas and Kansas City, or the games where Herbert only led his team to 17 points.
While the Chargers have been strong in the red zone, ranked No. 4 in touchdown rate (66.7%), the running game has been wildly inconsistent, and Herbert’s sack rate (5.6%) is the highest of his career.
The Jets have a strong secondary that can limit Keenan Allen’s damage, and while the run defense has been a weakness, it is not a strength of the Chargers to just feed Austin Ekeler on the ground. In fact, Ekeler had 29 yards on 15 carries against the Bears. But the Chargers just passed all over that secondary, which is not likely going to work in this matchup.
The Jets have also held all but one opponent (Dallas – 30) under 24 points this season. These teams have not played since Herbert’s rookie season since 2020, and much has changed since for the New York defense under Robert Saleh. This could be a rough game for Herbert on the road.
Jets Not in Position to Exploit the Chargers’ Defense
Just as the Chargers are not likely going to defer to the running game to run all over the Jets, the Jets are not going to ask Zach Wilson to throw for 300 yards against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
But maybe they’ll ask for a little more passing after Wilson made the big plays in desperate times to send the game against the Giants to overtime where the team prevailed in a 13-10 game that was everything you expected with 34 possessions and 23 points.
The Jets are 4-3 with Wilson playing all but 4 snaps for Aaron Rodgers, and New York has only one game with more than 200 net passing yards (Chiefs). They are not even relying on the running game as much as expected, as New York ranks 29th in rushing attempts despite ranking No. 3 in yards per carry.
Maybe the Jets should rely on Breece Hall more, and that could be the case this week as the Chargers had their worst games on run defense on the road against the Titans and Jaguars. Tennessee makes sense given it’s Derrick Henry, but the Vikings have not been good this year on the ground without Dalvin Cook.
The Jets haven’t been very good on the ground with Cook, but Hall is the one who should be featured more in this offense. His 50-yard touchdown catch from Wilson against the Giants was the team’s only touchdown in that game.
The Pick
Look, the under is now 9-1 on Monday night games this season. Week after week, we have been watching offenses die on live TV to end the NFL week. The Jets have already played 5-of-7 games this year that did not reach 41 points, and would it be any surprise to see this one do that with the presence of the Jets and the matchup of Herbert against an elite pass defense?
We’ll take the under on Monday night again, which has been the best bet in the NFL in 2023.
NFL Pick: Under 41.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Do the Bengals Have Buffalo’s Number?
A great matchup for Sunday night, the Bills (5-3) head into Cincinnati (4-3) for the first official regular-season matchup between quarterbacks Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. We know what happened last year in Week 17 and the divisional round playoff game when the Bengals took it to Buffalo.
But this will hopefully be a game that is competitive and entertaining with the teams in the hunt for a Super Bowl later this year. They are two of the only teams in the league you could trust to go into Kansas City and win a game in January.
The Bengals are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 48.5 points. Are the Bengals finally going to get their first AFC win this year? They are 4-0 against the NFC West and 0-3 against AFC teams.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 5, 2023 – 08:20 PM EST at Paycor Stadium
When the Bills Have the Ball
In a big game, you know the Bills are going to put the ball in Josh Allen’s hands at a high volume. In his last 2 games, Allen has thrown at least 40 passes and ran the ball 7 times in both games. It is the 4th time in his career he’s had a streak of games like that, and all other quarterbacks in NFL history have combined to do that 3 times.
Allen is a unique talent, but sometimes putting it all on your quarterback can backfire. In the playoff loss against the Bengals, the Bills abandoned the run early because the game got away from them so quickly. Buffalo had the ball 8 times in that game, and they trailed by double digits on 7-of-8 drives to end the game, an astonishing number.
But the Bengals have been great in big games with this coaching staff, and the attention should not be going all to Joe Burrow and the offense. It has been defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and his defense’s ability to put the clamps on teams like the Chiefs and Bills in these big games. We even saw it last week in San Francisco when the Bengals did a great job of forcing turnovers against the 49ers on the road.
We know Allen is prone to mistakes and trying too hard at times, so the Bengals could be there to feast on him if the Bills get too one-dimensional and behind big early. The Bills are the NFL’s best “win big, lose close” team, so grinding out the 3-point wins is not in their style.
If the Bengals can get the pass rush going at home with Trey Hendrickson coming after Allen, then they could hold the Bills under 21 points as we have seen some stumbles on that side of the ball with Buffalo lately.
When the Bengals Have the Ball
We can put the calf talk to rest with Joe Burrow. For a few weeks now he has looked physically fine and the season can continue as expected. He has his wide receiver trio healthy, and they tore up the San Francisco defense on Sunday. Burrow was 28-of-32 for 283 yards and 3 touchdowns in one of the best games of his career.
Maybe that sparks a big Cincinnati run, because the playoff game in snowy Buffalo last January was also the best performance for the Burrow-led offense in a playoff game yet. They took it to the Bills right away in that game and quickly took a 14-0 lead to take control of the game.
We saw the Bengals looking very sharp in Week 17 against this team last year too before the Damar Hamlin moment suspended the game. Maybe the Bengals just have the secret sauce to shredding Buffalo, but it could get even easier this week as the Bills have a lot of key defensive injuries right now with Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano out.
The Pick
Since drafting Burrow in 2020, the Bengals have the best spread record in the NFL, covering 63.9% of the time. Playing at home and gaining confidence from the San Francisco win should also help the Bengals in this one.
But Buffalo’s defensive injuries and Cincinnati’s variety on offense give the Bengals the edge in this one. Not only do the Bengals have a great wide receiver trio, but Joe Mixon and the running game exploded for 143 yards in San Francisco, the team’s best running performance all season. Last year in the playoffs, the Bengals rushed for 172 yards in Buffalo while Allen only got 11 carries for 38 yards from his running backs.
That’s the difference between these teams right now. The Bengals always seem to provide Burrow with strong team support in the big games while the Bills rely on Allen to be Superman. We’ll take the Bengals to get their first win over an AFC team this season, which would also move the Bengals ahead of Buffalo in the standings.
NFL Pick: Bengals -2.5 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Will the Steelers Humble Will Levis?
Few probably imagined this Week 9 game would feature Will Levis and Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, but that might be the case as Kenny Pickett injured his ribs and left Sunday’s game before halftime. Even fewer might have imagined the Titans could have an edge at quarterback after Levis threw 4 touchdown passes in his debut against Atlanta.
However, the Steelers are a 3-point home favorite with a total of just 36.5 points.
Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Thursday, November 2, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at Acrisure Stadium
Will Levis’ Debut
Throwing 4 touchdown passes in your NFL debut is so rare that only Fran Tarkenton and Marcus Mariota had ever done it before Will Levis joined the list Sunday. That also might be the only way Tarkenton and Mariota are linked because one went to the Hall of Fame and Mariota is currently Philadelphia’s backup.
So, it does not guarantee career success, but it was an encouraging start for Levis, especially after the Tennessee passing game looked so weak this season with Ryan Tannehill. Not only did DeAndre Hopkins catch his 1st touchdown of 2023 on Sunday, but he caught 3 scores in one game from Levis.
Anomaly or Arrival?
But was it a debut that’s likely to be an anomaly or the arrival of a new superstar? Lost in the touchdown bombs, Levis’ passing success rate was only 32.3%. Success rate is when a passer gains 45% of the needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd and 4th downs.
Not only is 32.3% low, but it is the lowest since 1994 in any game where a quarterback threw 4 touchdown passes. That is enough to make one pause and throw a little cold water on the start for Levis. He’ll need to be more consistent than that, because the touchdown bombs are not going to be there like that every week.
Also, the Pittsburgh defense is filled with veterans and can confuse a rookie quarterback on a short week in a scheme that is not exactly lighting up the league in Tennessee. This could be a game for T.J. Watt to further his case for Defensive Player of the Year as Levis is a quarterback known to take sacks.
But at least the Titans will enter the game with some hope at Pittsburgh. Things are the opposite for the Steelers.
Pittsburgh: Same Old Story
In a league where teams are so inconsistent, you have to give it up to the Steelers for being so reliably predictable since 2021. That’s when Matt Canada took over as offensive coordinator, and since then, his offense has never had a game with 400 yards. The Steelers also have not scored more than 30 points in 32 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Getting a first down? That can often wait until the 2nd quarter for Pittsburgh. This team has a very strict way of winning games. The defense must play excellent and keep it a one-score game in the 4th quarter, and that’s when the offense can finally move the ball in a hurry-up situation and win the game that way.
But this only works against the right opponents. If the Steelers play a contender, they usually get crushed on both sides of the ball. If they happen to beat a contender, it likely is by fluke like the Bengals missing 2 short kicks with the emergency long snapper in to start the 2022 season, or the Ravens dropping a ton of points on the field in Week 5 this year.
The Steelers also have a big quarterback problem. We mentioned Levis throwing 4 touchdowns in his first game, but Kenny Pickett has thrown 2 touchdowns in 1-of-20 games in his career. He also left another game injured (ribs) on Sunday, so his durability is a question mark on top of his caliber of play.
Whether Pickett or veteran Mitch Trubisky starts the game, the Steelers more or less can expect the same level of quarterback play. They have good receivers who can make plays against this underwhelming secondary for the Titans, but the Steelers will need Watt and the defense to be special in the turnover battle again.
The Pick
The Titans are the right opponent for the Steelers, because they have a green quarterback who is going to be overwhelmed at times by Watt and the pass rush, and he will likely make mistakes on the road in a short week. The Tennessee offense is also not dynamic enough to hang a big point total on Pittsburgh like the 49ers did in Week 1.
Pittsburgh’s offense is what it is, but the Titans are not great enough on defense to think that they’ll need more than 20 points to win this game at home. Trust Mike Tomlin to have his team ready to bounce back after Sunday’s loss and get this cover.
NFL Pick: Steelers -3 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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