NFL Wild Card Weekend Swinger’s Best Bets: Bills Will Have Plenty of Tricks for Nix
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Swinging Johnson
- January 9, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Bills -8½ (-108) at Heritage Sports for 4 units (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The postseason has arrived and Swinging Johnson is looking to cash his three big plays and has even included a total this week as well. Let’s see what Swinger has in store for us in the Wild Card Weekend!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 26-27-1 ATS (+1.10 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 18 Recap (0-3 ATS, -7.7 units)
Last week I posted a Week 18 warning, which was essentially me waving the red flag about betting too much on any one team due to the uncertainty regarding how long starters would play, if at all, and all the many landmines on the first Sunday in January that can blow up a season’s worth of grinding to make a buck.
I followed my own advice to a certain extent, but instead of putting 3 units on the Colts -4½, 2 units on the 49ers +4½, and 2 units on the Seahawks -5½, I should have just put a unit on each and called it a day. And what a day it was if you’re fond of misery.
All three wagers failed to cover despite the Colts winning by a field goal and the Seahawks beating the Rams by 5 freaking points and me getting burned by the additional hook. All in all, I dropped 7.7 units but ended the regular season up 1.1 units. Hey, it’s better than a sharp stick in the eye, especially after hearing the horror stories about this NFL season from many respected handicappers who are down major units.
Okay, the first round of postseason action should treat us far better than the enigmatic Week 18, so let’s go to work and make the bookies cry.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
I wouldn’t blame you if you’re down on the Steelers; after all, they lost their last four games. But let’s also understand that the scheduling gods were obviously settling a grudge as they pitted Pittsburgh against the mettle of the league in dealing them the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals. Of those four contests, the Steelers covered only in the last one, a 19-17 loss to Cincinnati as 2½ point home underdogs.
The Ravens, on the other hand, have the squares salivating after winning their last four games, including a 31-2 curb stomp of the Texans followed by a dominating 35-10 regular-season finale victory over the Browns. They look like the real deal, and Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-caliber season, but Josh Allen will take home the hardware this year.
So, here’s the deal. Pittsburgh was without Russell Wilson’s top target, George Pickens, when they took on Baltimore three weeks ago in a 34-17 loss. Entering that game, the Steelers had won and covered four straight games against the Ravens.
But let’s not forget that this game is the rubber match because the Steelers prevailed, 18-16, in the first meeting in November. Giving the Steelers a double-digit head start with veteran coach Mike Tomlin at the helm in the postseason is insane. Check this stat out. Mike Tomlin is a 72% ATS winner as a division dog since 2007, which includes a 13-3-2 ATS record as an underdog against the Ravens.
Grab the points and do it now before the number starts to tumble.
NFL Pick: Steelers +10 (-115) at BetOnline for 4 units (visit our BetOnline Review)
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
I know the court of public opinion has soured on Tony Romo, who was once the golden boy of broadcasting. But I’m still a huge fan and don’t understand the hate other than people are fickle, and tearing people down has become a cottage industry in this country.
Nevertheless, I must confess I was initially influenced by him when he touted the Broncos as having an excellent chance against the Bills. Sure, that could’ve been mandated by the network to build anticipation for this matchup, but I thought he made a few good points.
However, now that I’ve had an opportunity to evaluate this matchup for myself, I disagree with my boy TR. Yes, the Broncos looked outstanding against the Chiefs’ scrubs, but so too did the Patriots third-string quarterback Joe Milton against the Bills’ C-team last week.
The Broncos defense allowed over 27 points per game over their last four contests before that Week 18 joke of a game. Denver’s pass defense has repeatedly gotten exposed by elite quarterbacks, and Josh Allen may be the best of the bunch.
I don’t see Bo Nix trading touchdowns with Allen, and although the Bills may not be able to get their running game going against a stout Broncos run-stop unit, the same can also be said for the Broncos versus the stingy Bills’ rush defense.
Lastly, Denver routinely beats the bums but loses to the big guns. Buffalo is the best team they’ve played this year, and Bo Nix is a rookie playing in a hostile, frigid environment, which is why I believe the Bills will win this one by double digits without breaking much of a sweat.
NFL Pick: Bills -8½ (-108) at Heritage Sports for 4 units
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Rookie Jayden Daniels is going to have to win this one through the air because Tampa’s run defense is too stout for the Commanders to make much of a dent. That said, Tampa’s aerial defense is leaky, to say the least, and Daniels will most assuredly find his targets.
However, Baker Mayfield has been balling this year, and he’ll make the Washington secondary pay early and often. But here’s where the Bucs have a decided advantage. Bucky Irving will be able to run around and over the porous Commanders’ run defense. Unlike Daniels, Mayfield will have an impressive running game to keep the Commanders’ secondary honest.
This might be a good spot to go over the posted total as well, which is why I’m putting 1 unit on that as well.
NFL Pick: Over 49½ (-115) at Bovada for 1 unit (visit our Bovada Review)
NFL Pick: Bucs -3 (-105) at Bookmaker for 2 units (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (5-12-1 ATS)
The Woodman couldn’t resist taking the 10 points the books were generously offering on the Chiefs’ second and third stringers. It was a sucker’s bet but one that many others were prepared to make, hoping Kansas City would at least keep it respectable. They didn’t, as the Broncos handed their divisional rivals a 38-0 ass-kicking.
However, the Woodman was so impressed with the Broncos that he’s decided to turn last week’s foe into this week’s friend. It’s the football version of a frenemy! The Woodman is hoping to turn a dismal regular season into a fruitful postseason, but as you can see above, I happen to disagree and believe the Bills will cruise.
Nevertheless, notice that the Woodman is getting the Broncos +9½ at BOL while I got the Bills -8½ over at Heritage. If Buffy wins by nine, then we’re both winners. It pays to shop around, kids.
Woodman’s Pick: Broncos +9½ (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
