North Carolina vs. Mississippi March Madness First Round Best Bet

North Carolina may have quieted some naysayers by blasting San Diego State in the 11-seeded play-in game during the First Four. We are now looking for the Tar Heels to keep rolling for at least one more game by beating sixth-seeded Mississippi in the first round of the South Region on Friday.

Team on a Mission?

There was a lot of controversy surrounding North Carolina even making the NCAA Tournament. This was despite being the fifth seed in a good ACC at 13-7, rallying from more than 20 points down and losing by only three in the conference tournament semifinals to #1 Duke and currently being ranked 30th in Kenpom.

The controversy stemmed from going just 1-12 against Quadrant 1 schools, and yes that is a fair criticism. But this is still an excellent offensive team that:

• Averages 81.2 points per game.
• Ranks 19th in offensive efficiency.
• Plays at the 34th fastest pace in the land.

They demolished a San Diego State defense ranked ninth nationally in eFG% allowed by a 95-68 score Tuesday, and they were already at 82 points with over seven minutes left, leading by 40 at 82-42 before garbage time commenced! Yes, they are now facing an SEC team, but Mississippi has more flaws than most of the other SEC teams in this field, which is factoring into UNC being small favorites here despite being the lower seed.

Vulnerable Inside

Mississippi is 22-11, had a winning 10-8 record inside the best conference in the country and is currently ranked a few spots higher than the Heels in Kenpom at 26th. Still, they have some flaws on both ends of the court that can put them at a stylistic disadvantage here in some areas.

Offensively, the Rebels are an average at best shooting team that ranks 159th in eFG%, and they do not generate many second chances ranking 313th in offensive rebounding percentage. Their 31st ranking in offensive efficiency is rather deceiving, as it is fueled by great ball protection. And they have indeed been excellent with the second lowest turnover rate in the land.

However, that does not help much when you are not hitting shots at a high rate and not grabbing offensive boards, and we see that continuing against a UNC team ranked a good 50th in defensive rebounding percentage.

And then there is the defense, which is only 156th in eFG% allowed and especially vulnerable inside, ranking 210th in 2-point defense. Moreover, Ole Miss is not a good defensive rebounding team either ranking 234th in that category.

The Pick

The bottom line here is that North Carolina has the offense to take advantage of the weaknesses on the Mississippi defense, while we do not see a path where the Rebels can counteract that without getting many second chances. Bet on the Tar Heels to continue to prove the critics wrong for at least one more game.

Predicted Score: North Carolina 80 – Mississippi 73

NCAAB Pick: North Carolina -1.5 (-110) at Bovada

North Carolina -1.5 (-110)

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