Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M College Football Week 1 Preview and Prediction

The sharps know what they’re doing. Georgia Tech drew tons of early action for their Week 0 opener versus Florida State, and then the Yellow Jackets beat FSU straight-up, 24-21 as 10-point underdogs across the pond in Dublin.

Granted, we had Florida State in our Week 0 college football picks here at the ranch – but only after they fell from –12.5 at the open, and only for a small bet. We’re taking the same approach for Saturday’s Week 1 tilt between Notre Dame and Texas A&M; the Aggies may have been a sharp pick when they opened as –1.5 home faves, but we’re reeling the Irish in now that they’re +3 on the NCAAF odds board.

Is Texas A&M Good Again?

All signs point to yes. This will be their first year under former defensive coordinator Mike Elko, who returns to College Station after two reasonably successful seasons as Duke’s head coach. Elko was also Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator in 2017, so he might even have some inside knowledge that still applies in 2024.

Let’s take a closer look at those two years at Duke:

• 2022-23: 9-4 SU and ATS
• 2023-24: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS

Each year ended with the Blue Devils winning their bowl game SU and ATS. While Duke’s 2023-24 record wasn’t quite as strong as Elko’s rookie year under the headset, the Devils had a much stronger schedule to deal with; at plus-9.02 on the Simple Rating System at Sports Reference, Duke outperformed their plus-7.39 SRS from the year previous.

The Aggies should benefit from Elko’s guidance after falling apart somewhat in the last years under Jimbo Fisher’s tenure. It was Fisher who hired Elko away from Notre Dame back in 2018, so the transition should be relatively seamless – at least on the defensive end.

New offensive coordinators Holmon Wiggins (former AHC/WR coach at Alabama) and Collin Klein (former OC/QB coach at Kansas State) have a bit more work to do on the other side of the ball.

Why Bet on Notre Dame?

Because they’re getting three points – and hopefully more by the time you read this. Expectations may be somewhat high for Texas A&M as the No. 20 team on the preseason AP rankings; Notre Dame is No. 7, which already makes it very interesting that the Irish are getting the full field goal at College Station.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that Notre Dame beat Duke 21-14 last year as 4.5-point road faves (Under 53). Yes, it took a 30-yard rushing TD from Audric Estime with 31 seconds remaining to get the matador cover, but there you go.

As for Elko’s familiarity with Notre Dame, it was Brian Kelly wearing the cans back in 2017. Marcus Freeman took over as head coach late in 2021, and his timing couldn’t be much better; the Irish are exactly the kind of high-profile team that’s most likely to thrive in this new college football world of big money, NIL deals and player transfers.

A Fresh Start

Speaking of which, Riley Leonard is the new quarterback in South Bend. This might be why the sharps were on A&M early; Leonard was at Duke the past three years and started 13 games in 2022 before losing half the 2023 campaign to an ankle injury. Elko definitely knows a thing or two about Leonard.

It’s enough for us to once again recommend a smaller bet size for your football picks. However, Elko won’t be as familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, who returns to Notre Dame for a third tour of duty – Denbrock’s last year at South Bend was 2016, then he bailed for similar jobs at Cincinnati (2018-21) and LSU (2022-23).

And now the Irish are getting three points in Week 1, after the underdogs went 1-6 SU and 6-1 ATS in Week 0?

Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame +3 (–108) at Heritage Sports 

Notre Dame +3 (–108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.