NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills to Win AFC (+165) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
If the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meet for the AFC Championship, the game will be held at Atlanta’s Mercedes Benz Stadium, instead of either team’s home field. The neutral site was needed after a Bills-Bengals game crucial to AFC playoff seeding was canceled due to Damar Hamlin’s life-threatening on-field cardiac arrest.
The Chiefs are the No. 1 seed, with the Bills right behind at No. 2. The two AFC powers have met in the playoffs each of the last two seasons in epic games, with the Chiefs coming out on top in both. Before we get a third straight playoff clash—and second in the AFC Championship Game—both teams have some work to do.
The Bills will need to get past the Cincinnati Bengals in a rematch of a game that never officially happened. The Bengals are the defending AFC champions, so the path to Atlanta will be a steep one for Buffalo. Meanwhile, the Chiefs need to beat the surprising Jacksonville Jaguars, who went from one of the worst teams in the league last year to AFC South champions, then pulled off a historic comeback in the Wild Card round.
Who Is the Favorite?
The Chiefs and Bills are co-favorites, with Kansas City having the slightest of edges. According to BetOnline’s futures odds, Kansas City is +145 to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Buffalo is close behind, at +165.
The Chiefs won the AFC West by four games, finishing at 14-3 and winning their last five games. Kansas City also earned the lone bye in the AFC and was able to rest last weekend. Buffalo was just as dominant in the East, winning the division by four and a half games, at 13-3. The Bills finished the regular season with seven straight wins, then dispatched the Miami Dolphins in a surprisingly tough Wild Card weekend game.
The Bills beat the Chiefs in a regular season matchup in mid-October, 24-20. Kansas City is the only team in the remaining field to play all three of the other AFC hopefuls. The Chiefs beat Jacksonville in November and lost at Cincinnati in December.
The Long(er) Shots
The Bengals beat the Chiefs in last season’s AFC Championship Game to advance to the Super Bowl. Cincinnati is certainly capable of a repeat. The Bengals won the North by two and a half games, finishing at 12-4 and winning their last eight games to close the regular season.
Cincy then knocked off the Ravens last weekend. The Bengals will likely have to beat both AFC favorites to repeat as conference champs, which explains why their NFL odds are set at +350 on BetOnline.
The Jaguars are the longest shots in the field, at +1,200. Jacksonville shocked the league by taking the AFC South division with a 9-8 record. The Jags won their last five regular season games to clinch the crown, then came back from a 27-point deficit to shock the Chargers in last weekend’s Wild Card round.
While the Chiefs and Bills have arguably the top two quarterbacks in the league, in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, respectively, the two underdogs have QBs ready to ascend to that level in Cincy’s Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence of the Jags.
The Pick
Given the odds, the Bengals would be a tempting NFL pick to pull off the double upset. The talent on offense is nearly on par with KC and Buffalo. However, guard Jonah Williams went down with what’s believed to be a dislocated kneecap in Sunday’s game. He joins two other injured Bengals offensive line starters. La’el Collins tore his ACL in late December, and Alex Cappa hurt his ankle in the regular season finale.
Cappa and Williams haven’t been ruled out, but the Bengals will likely be playing behind a wounded, makeshift line on Sunday, and, if they advance, in the AFC Championship as well. Given their unsettled situation, we like the third time to be the charm for the Bills against the Chiefs in the ATL next weekend.
New Yorkers looking to place a wager on the Buffalo Bills to win the AFC, can do so at these top NY betting sites.
NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills to Win AFC (+165) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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