Ohio State vs. Penn State College Football Week 10 Free Picks
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Jason Lake
- October 29, 2024
College Football Pick: Penn State +4.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Beaver Stadium hasn’t been good to Penn State this year, but they’re the right choice for Saturday’s college football picks versus Ohio State.
You know the drill by now: Take the home dog in one of college football’s toughest yards. As we go to press, the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) are +4.5 on the Week 10 college football odds board at Heritage Sports, up a point from the open for Saturday’s Big Ten matchup with the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS). It’s a moral imperative – with a caveat.
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Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Beaver Stadium
Is Penn State Better Than Ohio State?
Not on paper. The Nittany Lions have the better record heading into Week 10, but wins and losses aren’t the greatest predictor of future success; Penn State has played a softer schedule than OSU, failing to cover at home over the likes of Bowling Green (+34), Illinois (+19) and UCLA (+29.5).
Ohio State’s only loss came on the road, 32-31 at Oregon (+3.5) in Week 7. The Buckeyes botched the final moments and let the clock expire as they approached field-goal range, so again, look past the wins and losses, and OSU checks in at No. 1 overall (No. 3 offense, No. 3 defense, No. 9 special teams) on the F+ Ratings at BCF Toys, ahead of No. 7 PSU (No. 12 offense, No. 7 defense, No. 79 special teams).
Is Beaver Stadium a Tough Venue?
Very much so. Former OSU head coach Urban Meyer called Beaver Stadium the “No. 1 most difficult place to play in college football” earlier this month while appearing on FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff. Former Colorado QB and current Fox analyst Joel Klatt has it second behind LSU’s Tiger Stadium; EA College Football 25 has Beaver Stadium at No. 6, two spots behind Ohio Stadium.
The Nittany Lions didn’t take full advantage of their home field against all those double-digit underdogs, but Saturday will be a much different vibe. The last time Beaver Stadium saw two Top-5 teams do battle was 1999, when nearly 100,000 people showed up to watch No. 3 PSU beat No. 4 Arizona 41-7. They’re expecting over 110,000 to show up for Ohio State.
Saturday could even break the official stadium record of 110,889, set in 2018 when the Buckeyes beat Penn State 27-26 as 3-point favorites. Ryan Day was Ohio State’s acting coach that year while Meyer was on administrative leave, but it was an easy transition for OSU; still, the Lions are 1-9 SU and 7-3 ATS versus the Buckeyes since James Franklin took over this program in 2014, including 1-4 SU and 4-1 ATS at home.
Is Drew Allar Playing?
This is the caveat we warned you about. Franklin told reporters Monday that Allar (15 TD passes, four INTs), who ranks No. 10 in the FBS with an 83.6 QBR, could be a game-time decision after he hurt his left knee during the first half of PSU’s game against Wisconsin.
Not a problem? Redshirt sophomore backup Beau Pribula played the second half and went 11-of-13 for 98 yards and a touchdown, leading Penn State to a 28-13 comeback win as 6.5-point road faves. Pribula was a three-star recruit coming out of Central York High School, ranked No. 29 among quarterbacks by 247Sports, but as a dual threat, he’s arguably out-performed Allar in these small sample sizes.
The Pick
Pribula still has something to prove at this level, so we’re going to recommend a smaller bet size for your college football picks than we would if Allar were 100% healthy and confirmed to start. Otherwise, all the elements are there for yet another home dog cover in a must-see matchup – and our early consensus reports at BMR show unanimous support for Penn State. Bet accordingly.
College Football Pick: Penn State +4.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
