Ohio State vs. Notre Dame College Football Playoff National Championship Game Best Bets

Marcus Freeman

Notre Dame arguably has the best head coach right now. The Dodd Trophy, for Coach of the Year, winner’s track record in big games constitutes fantastic supporting material. This year, his Irish are 7-0 SU and ATS against ranked opponents.

In one week in the postseason, he accumulated more wins against top-five opponents than his predecessor, current LSU head coach Brian Kelly, accumulated during his twelve-year tenure at Notre Dame. He also has more such wins than his most recent counterpart, Penn State’s head coach James Franklin.

It is clear to see that he has his team playing tough. Led by Freeman, Notre Dame’s program culture is very strong.

Key Trend

Freeman’s coaching excellence contributes to this key trend that will decide the outcome of this game. With extra preparation, Freeman’s Irish are 12-0 SU and ATS.

So far in this postseason, they covered the spread against Indiana, with the Hoosiers scoring two late touchdowns against Notre Dame’s backups and still losing by ten. The Irish also covered the spread in their 13-point win over Georgia.

Most recently, Freeman outcoached Franklin with little preparation time. After his team last played on January 9, Freeman now gets extra time to prepare for this game on January 20 against Ohio State.

The Peak Form of Notre Dame’s Run Defense

As great coaches do, Freeman has his team playing in top form in the time — the postseason — that matters most. For example, his team’s run defense is peaking. Notre Dame held its first two postseason opponents, Georgia and Indiana, to 2.1 and 2.3 YPC, respectively. For comparison’s sake, the best team at limiting opposing YPC allows 2.4 YPC.

It is true that Penn State, taking advantage of Freeman’s relative lack of preparation time, came with a good game-plan for its offense and amassed a lot of rushing yards in the first half of its game against Notre Dame.

But then Freeman made adjustments, and the Irish limited Penn State to -3 rushing yards in the third quarter and locked down Penn State’s running backs throughout the second half.

Strong Defensive Lines against Ohio State

Led by All-American selection Howard Cross III, who is at his best against the run, Notre Dame has a solid defensive line.

Strout defensive line play is decisive against Notre Dame, as Michigan, Nebraska, and Penn State teams that defeated or stayed within seven points of the Buckeyes have shown.

While Cross III’s partner in the interior is injured, Ohio State’s offensive line is down two starters, including its center.

A Notre Dame run defense that now compares with the nation’s best will follow Michigan, Nebraska, and Penn State teams in limiting Ohio State to 21 points or fewer because it will be able to curb the Buckeyes’ rush attack without devoting extra resources, from its pass defense, to doing so.

Notre Dame’s Cornerback Play

Notre Dame’s pass defense, led by its cornerbacks, has been top-caliber. Most recently, the Irish shut down Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, whose season-long passer rating is 153.5. Allar’s passer rating against Notre Dame was a season-low 92.8. His worst game, before facing Notre Dame, came against Ohio State — his passer rating in that game was almost 20 points higher than it was against the Irish.

Irish cornerbacks do a great job of preventing opposing wide receivers from being open, making it too difficult for opposing quarterbacks to connect with their targets.

As Michigan did without its lockdown cornerback, Notre Dame will blanket Ohio State’s wide receivers.

Notre Dame’s Offense

In this postseason, Notre Dame has scored 27 points against Indiana, 23 points against Georgia, and 27 points against Penn State.

Before playing the Irish, Penn State ranked fifth in scoring defense, with Indiana ranked right beside it. So, Notre Dame’s offense has proven that it can reliably exceed 20 points against the nation’s best defenses.

While Jeremiyah Love, with his 7.1 YPC, is a terrific ball-carrier who is consistent but also always capable of hitting home runs, Notre Dame’s starting running back is also a well-established pass-catcher.

Texas’ offense could score two touchdowns, despite the beleaguered and rusty state of its wide-receiving crew (and despite its ridiculous choke on first-and-goal from Ohio State’s one-yard line), by utilizing its backup running back as a pass-catcher. Notre Dame can do the same with Love.

Ohio State also allows big rushing gains to opposing quarterbacks, which quarterback Riley Leonard is well-built to achieve, as he has continued to complement his efficient passing with strong running in postseason action.

With a wide-receiving crew that Phil Steele ranked tenth before the season, Leonard will also get a lot out of guys like Jaden Greathouse, who is coming off a seven-reception, 105-yard performance against Penn State.

Takeaway

While the Buckeyes have been amassing high point totals, which leads to their being favored so strongly for this matchup, we can’t forget the several instances this year where they have struggled to put up points.

Their offense struggled in their last game, too, but were bailed out by a highly improbable long touchdown before half, that directly followed unfocused Texas’ equalizing touchdown, and an even more improbable fumble return touchdown.

Notre Dame has the defensive line and secondary play to hold the Buckeyes to around 20 points. Its offense consistently shows that it can be counted on to exceed 20 points.

With extra preparation, Freeman will get the best performance out of his guys on both sides of the ball.

NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame +9.5 (-110) at BetOnline 

NCAAF Pick: Ohio State TT Under 27.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Ohio State TT Under 27.5 (-110)

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