Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Picks: How to Bet the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

We see a higher scoring game than this posted total implies for the National Championship Game, so we are backing the Over when Ohio State takes on Notre Dame on Monday.

New Gear for Offense

Do you remember when everyone including Ohio State fans themselves were doubting the Buckeyes after their season-ending 13-10 upset loss to Michigan? Well, the offense has kicked things into gear with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly being more aggressive with his play calling than at any other time during his stay at the school.

With more early down passing and excellent execution by quarterback Will Howard, Ohio State dismantled Tennessee and Oregon by scores of 42-17 and 41-21 with Howard passing for over 300 yards each game. Then, they prevailed 28-14 over Texas in their last game with Howard passing for 289 yards and completed 73% of his passes against a secondary rated best in the country in Coverage per PFF!

With all due respect to a Notre Dame team ranked 12th in passing defense, they are still a notch below Texas, so we still expect the Buckeyes to have offensive success in their newfound attack mode. Remember also that Howard was successful in the last game with their superstar receiver Jeremiah Smith limited to one catch for three yards. The Buckeyes showed their receiving depth with three other receivers having at least 50 yards.

We now expect a bounce-back for Smith, and this has become probably the most dynamic passing attack the Irish has faced all season.

Mobile Quarterback

So, can Notre Dame keep up in this game offensively against an Ohio State team that leads the country in total defense? We think they can for a while with a mobile quarterback in Riley Leonard, who usually makes the right read on RPO options, which is a look the great Buckeyes’ defense has not seen much of, if at all.

Leonard has successfully read when to hand the ball off to either leading rusher Jeremiyah Love (1121 yards, 7.1 YPC) or the emerging Jadarian Price (733, 6.3) or when to take off himself (866 rushing yards, 16 rushing touchdowns). And when Leonard has elected to pass, he has completed 66.4% of his passes, averaging 7.0 yards per attempt with 19 touchdown passes against eight interceptions.

The Irish can also hang around with sustained drives, effectively playing keep-away from the Ohio State offense. However, we think the Buckeyes will have enough quick-strike scores to force Notre Dame to be more aggressive later in the game.                                                                                                              

Betting the Total

While both defenses rank highly, both are facing offenses they are not accustomed to. Notre Dame has yet to face a passing attack like the Buckeyes have presented during this Playoff and Ohio State has not seen an option attack run as successfully as Leonard does. Thus, bet the Over in the National Championship Game.

Predicted Score: Ohio State 34 – Notre Dame 24

NCAAF Pick: Over 46 (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Over 46 (-108)

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