Ohio State vs. Oregon College Football Week 7 Pick

Ohio State’s Rush Attack

During last week’s 35-7 win over Iowa, Ohio State’s rush attack passed a major test. With a high-caliber front seven led by an All-American at linebacker, the Hawkeyes had a top-five run defense heading into this matchup.

Against the Hawkeyes, Ohio State amassed 203 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC.

If you think this is a fluke, just consider what Ohio State did the week before to a Michigan State team whose strength on defense has, since its Week 1 win over Florida Atlantic, proven to be its defensive line. The Buckeyes performed similarly well, achieving 185 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC.

Largely thanks to its rush attack, Ohio State is able to exceed 30 points against strong defensive units like Iowa’s, even while opposing offenses aren’t able to push the Buckeyes offense.

Key Players

Ranking close to the very top in both YPC and rushing yards per game, Ohio State undeniably has one of the nation’s best rush attacks.

The Buckeyes’ running back room is led by the duo of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Despite the strong opposition that they’ve had to face in the last two weeks, both average over eight YPC. Both running backs possess many good traits that promote the expectation that they will be drafted in around the second round.

Judkins is fast but also strong and powerful. He will power through defenders and is tough to bring down mainly because of the force with which he collides with defenders.

Henderson is more so the evasive type. He will use cut-backs and other moves to avoid being tackled.

Both running backs are intelligent on the field, using a mixture of patience and vision to complement their physical abilities, and they will help Ohio State sustain drives, and one must expect them to continue achieving big plays.

Oregon’s Run Defense

Oregon’s most recent games do create a positive impression of its run defense. However, most recently, the Ducks have not faced high-caliber rush attacks.

Yes, last Friday they shut down Michigan State’s ground game and looked good doing it. But Michigan State’s rush attack also ranks toward the bottom.

When Oregon’s defense faced high-caliber competition, it struggled. The Ducks played against Boise State in Week 2 and conceded 192 rushing yards on 7.7 YPC to the Broncos’ starting running back Ashton Jeanty.

It’s not like the Ducks’ defense committed easily fixable mental errors. Instead, Oregon defenders struggled to wrap Jeanty up. They failed to beat Jeanty to key spots, allowing Jeanty to race past them.

They showed physical deficiencies in their failure to limit Jeanty, which are all the more damning considering that Boise State’s pass attack posed a negligible threat. All they had to do was limit Jeanty, and they couldn’t do that.

Given this performance and given what the Buckeyes have done against its Big Ten competition thus far, we must expect Ohio State’s rush attack to continue to dominate.

Will Howard

Oregon gave up over 30 points to the Broncos largely because of Jeanty. Boise State’s quarterback hardly contributed to his offense’s success: he failed to complete half his passes and mustered fewer than 150 passing yards.

Ohio State’s quarterback Will Howard is clearly comfortable in his offense, and he is clearly succeeding. He is efficient and productive, most recently completing over 80 percent of his passes and throwing for 209 yards and four touchdowns, with one interception, against an Iowa secondary that, based on returning production, is supposed to be as good as one that did the fourth-best job last year at limiting the opponent’s passer rating.

Howard’s Wide Receivers

Howard has the benefit of throwing to a loaded group of wide receivers who will reliably win their one-on-one matchups.

To give an idea of Ohio State’s depth at this position, consider that Brandon Inniss was one of the very top prospects at wide receiver in 2023’s recruiting class and, a former five-star recruit, would start at just about any school right now.

Yet he is only the fourth-most productive wide receiver on his team right now. Instead, the Buckeyes rely most extensively on decorated wide receivers, such as former All-Big Ten selection Emeka Egbuka.

This group will challenge an Oregon secondary that, after losing its top cornerback from last year in the offseason, has struggled since its first game of the season to avoid giving up big passing plays against lesser competition.

With its excellent rush and pass attacks, Ohio State’s offense will overwhelm Oregon’s defense.

Can Jordan James Succeed?

For its rush attack, Oregon relies on running back Jordan James, who has feasted on lower-ranked rush attacks. He averaged a less impressive 5.2 YPC against UCLA, which has the toughest rush defense he’s seen so far.

And yet the quality of UCLA’s run defense pales in comparison to Ohio State’s. Ohio State was able to control the trenches against an Iowa rush attack whose offensive line returned great production from last year.

The Hawkeyes had one of the nation’s leading rushers in Kaleb Johnson. Yet Johnson was shut down until he padded his stats a bit late in the fourth quarter when the game was decided.

If you take away that meaningless 28-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter of what was then a 35-0 game, then Johnson had all of 58 rushing yards on just over four YPC.

Will Dillon Gabriel Help James?

The best argument for Oregon runs like this: Johnson was bottled up by Ohio State’s defense because his quarterback was so deficient that the Buckeyes didn’t have to worry about him. Ducks backers will allege that James will do better than Johnson because Oregon’s quarterback is better than Iowa’s.

I deny, however, that Gabriel will pose a threat. While, yes, he is better than Iowa’s quarterback, there are a lot of reasons why he is still playing college football — his poor NFL Draft grades last year compelled him to return for a sixth season. His stats make him look good because he typically achieves attractive numbers against low-quality competition.

Scouts cite, however, several mental and physical deficiencies. The former include his lack of vision and anticipation, and the latter include his insufficient arm strength, which diminishes his ability to make certain throws. He might not need to make all the throws against, say, Michigan State.

Ohio State’s Secondary

However, Ohio State has the best secondary in the country, which will allow it to contain Gabriel without compromising the Buckeyes’ capacity to focus on containing James.

Whereas Gabriel won’t have Troy Franklin throw to — he was Oregon’s top wide receiver last year — the Buckeyes have plenty of NFL talent in its secondary. Denzel Burke, for example, was a Second-Team All-America selection last year. Fellow cornerback Davison Igbinosun was a Freshman All-America selection last season.

Based on 40-yard dash times, Igbinosun certainly has the speed to match up with Oregon’s top receiving option, Tez Johnson, but the team’s top cornerback Burke — whose vertical leap and other traits make him out as quite the athlete as well — is an even more polished cornerback at the moment.

Ohio State’s secondary has the ability to expose Gabriel’s deficiencies, even if Gabriel fixes the poor decisions, that led him to throw two interceptions last Friday, although his bad decision-making is a pattern for him because it is tied to his mental deficiencies.

Takeaway

Ohio State’s offense is, once again, going to blast past 30 points. Oregon has already shown its inability to handle a top-caliber rush attack even when its opponent lacks a dangerous pass attack.

With a great and deep group of wide receivers and with an efficient quarterback in Howard, Ohio State’s pass attack is very dangerous.

Its offensive balance will enable the Buckeyes’ offense to pose the toughest test that Oregon’s defense, which has also given up a concerning number of big pass plays even when it didn’t have to worry about its opponent’s rush attack, has seen so far.

The Ducks don’t have the wheels to keep pace on offense, not with its deficient quarterback, its not-nearly-as-deep wide receiver room, and not when it faces Ohio State’s well-tested run defense and elite secondary.

For the above reasons, expect a convincing Buckeyes win by a double-digit margin.

NCAAF Pick: Ohio State ML (-110) at Bovada 

Ohio State ML (-110)

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