Ohio State vs. Texas College Football Playoff Semifinals Best Bets: Don’t Forget How Good Texas Is

Avoid Recency Bias

Bettors are lining up to wager on the Buckeyes, who opened as 4.5-point favorites and became favored by 6.5 points.

A surface-level examination of these teams’ most recent performances indicates that Texas barely squeaked by a heavily dogged Arizona State team and that Ohio State dominated the top-seed Oregon.

When betting, though, we can’t be swayed by the most recent results because results change from week to week. Moreover, overall team quality is a poor predictor of results because matchup factors can give lesser talented and generally less able teams advantages over better teams.

For example, while Ohio State’s offense looked great in its last game, as it did when it scored 31 points at Oregon in the regular season, the Buckeyes followed the one-point loss at Oregon by beating Nebraska at home with a modest score of 21-17. Moreover, the Buckeyes mustered all of 20 points against Penn State and lost, as the heavily favored home team, 13-10 to Michigan.

Don’t Be Fooled

The point here is that Ohio State’s offense frequently isn’t remotely as electric as it was against Oregon. Because Ohio State frequently struggles against teams that are generally worse than Oregon, we aren’t justified in saying something like “the Longhorns barely beat Arizona State, so we should expect Ohio State to boatrace them.”

Instead, we have to look at matchup details. I contend that Texas matches up excellently against Texas. Moreover, we have to consider that the Longhorns are a bad favorite. They lack a killer instinct, so their games are often close, as their last one was.

They only beat Vanderbilt, for example, by three points, but they were still favored before last week to win the CFP — even though we knew about their game against Vanderbilt.

The current burst of love for Ohio State in this game is unreasonable. It is extremely impulsive and nearsighted. Texas was favored to win the CFP for a good reason — it has a great team — and it will flex its matchup advantages against Ohio State.

Texas’s Defense Will Do What Michigan’s Did

Michigan held Ohio State to ten points even without its elite cornerback. The Wolverines relied primarily on their elite defensive line. They used it to limit Ohio State’s run game and pressure its quarterback.

Because they could avoid devoting extra resources to limiting Ohio State’s offense, they were able to play safe coverages that focused on containing the Buckeyes’ elite wide receiver, Jeremiah Smith, and that inhibited the Buckeyes from achieving deep pass plays.

Texas is well-built to replicate and even exceed the Michigan defense’s accomplishment. Heading into the season, PFF ranked Texas’ defensive line as eighth-best without knowing exactly how solid its members would be.

Longhorns’ Defensive Line

Alfred Collins is a first-team All-SEC selection this year. Collins is known especially as a run-stuffer, although his sack numbers belie his quality as a pass rusher. While Collins mans the interior of their defensive line, the Longhorns are also well-stacked along the edges. As a result, Texas has one of the highest-ranked run defenses.

The Longhorns also boast one of the top-ranked pass defenses because their secondary is likewise stacked with talent. Unlike Michigan in its win over Ohio State, they have one of the best cornerbacks available to them. For the Longhorns, Jahdae Barron is a first-team All-American selection this year.

Texas’ Offense

In Texas’ worst game this season, its offense scored 15 points. This came against Georgia, in October, when the Longhorns were getting acclimated to SEC football. Their offensive line was developing physically and learning to be tougher. In their rematch against Georgia, their offense accumulated 130 more yards.

The Longhorns now will score over 20 points against any defense unless their own defense is strong enough to let them coast to victory.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers is excellent in the short and intermediate passing game, which is why his completion percentage is regularly so high. He has one of the best pass-catching crews. Isaiah Bond is projected to be a first-round draft pick, but Matthew Golden and Gunnar Helm amassed more receiving yards than him in the regular season.

Running back Quintrevion Wisner developed to exceed 1,000 rushing yards and reach 4.9 YPC in the regular season. Tennessee’s backup running back ran for 77 yards on ten carries against the Buckeyes, showing what a capable ball-carrier can accomplish against them. Texas will use its threat in the passing game as well as its offensive line, which is a Joe Moore Award finalist, to ensure that Wisner has running lanes.

PFF grades show Ewers’ historical effectivity on play-action passes, which he will be able to rely on when Wisner establishes himself.

Takeaway

Texas will use its elite defensive line to lock down Ohio State’s rush attack and to pressure quarterback Will Howard. Its top-caliber secondary will ensure that the Buckeyes struggle to sustain drives.

This game will resemble the multiple games this year in which Ohio State’s offenses struggled to reach 20 points.

On offense, Texas can exceed 20 points against any defense in the nation. It has one of the best offensive lines and pass-catching crews plus a reliable quarterback and running back who complement each other.

NCAAF Pick: Texas +6 (-110) at BetOnline

Texas +6 (-110)

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NCAAF Pick: Ohio State Team Total Under 30.5 (-135) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Ohio State Team Total Under 30.5 (-135)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.