NCAAF Pick: Under 48.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
College football Week 9’s Saturday features a SEC matchup between Oklahoma and Ole Miss.
Let’s see what the odds at the top sportsbooks have to say and find our top pick for this exciting game.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Ole Miss’ Issue With Pass Protection
Pass-blocking has been a continual problem for the Rebels. This was most obvious when they were upset at home by Kentucky.
Largely due to the repeated pressure that Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart faced from Kentucky’s defense — Kentucky collected four sacks — the Rebels could only manage 17 points.
The Wildcats were a 15.5-point underdog in that game, which shows how much of an equalizer the opposing underdog’s pass rush can operate as when it faces Ole Miss.
Moving forward to its most recent game, pass protection proved to be an unrelenting issue for Ole Miss. LSU held the Rebels to 23 points in regulation largely because it could sack them six times.
Oklahoma’s Pass Rush
While pass protection is an ongoing debilitating weakness for Ole Miss’ offense, pass rush continues to be a strength for the Sooners. They rank among the nation’s best teams in sack percentage.
One couldn’t have an idea of how effective Oklahoma’s defense is by looking at the scores. While the Sooners were blown out in their last game, against South Carolina, the score was something of a freak accident. The Gamecocks scored 35 points but barely managed 250 yards of offense. 22 of South Carolina’s 35 points came off of turnovers from Oklahoma’s offense.
South Carolina’s offense, however, was held in check. A theme of this article is the connection between a team’s pass rush quality, as measured by sack total, and the paucity of points scored by the other team’s offense.
Indeed, the Gamecocks were sacked six times by Oklahoma, who, without counting South Carolina’s ability to benefit from turnovers, held them to 13 points.
Several pass-rushing threats are worth noting for the Sooners, like their leader R Mason Thomas, who has six sacks so far. Several other OU players have collected multiple sacks.
They benefit from having a terrific coaching staff. Head coach Brent Venables was, when he was at Clemson, widely regarded as the nation’s best defensive coordinator. Venables is now clearly making terrific progress at Oklahoma.
Dealing With Mobile Quarterbacks
Since Dart can certainly run, it is worth noting that Oklahoma’s excellent pass rush makes it an effective weapon against mobile quarterbacks. In its last game, OU held South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers to 2.2 YPC, which is well below his season average.
Holding opposing mobile quarterbacks to inefficient rushing performances is something that the Sooners repeatedly do, as also evident in their games against Tennessee and Auburn.
Oklahoma’s Rush Defense
I also love Oklahoma’s defense in this matchup because its run defense is so stout. The Sooners most recently held South Carolina to an absurd 1.8 YPC even though the Gamecocks rushed 41 times.
Oklahoma measurably has one of the nation’s top run defenses, so Henry Parrish Jr., Ole Miss’ running back who has yet to break 100 rushing yards against SEC competition, will continue to struggle.
Ole Miss’ offensive line has had its hands full against SEC competition.
How Oklahoma Wants to Win
In order to win, Oklahoma’s defense will need to limit Ole Miss to a low-scoring total.
The Sooners will also need to be able to run the ball well. In their last win, which came against Auburn, they leaned on running the ball — they collected 32 carries, whereas they threw 15 passes.
At this point, we are between betting on the Sooners or betting on the “under.” We must decide which to bet on by assessing the quality of Ole Miss’ run defense.
Ole Miss’ Run Defense
As of Saturday night, the Rebels rank third in run defense.
Whereas LSU running back Caden Durham amassed 98 rushing yards on eleven carries against South Carolina’s highly-ranked run defense, Durham was held to 37 rushing yards and 3.1 YPC against Ole Miss.
The Rebels rank so highly in run defense because they repeatedly lock down opposing running backs.
Oklahoma’s rush attack already poses a rather soft challenge for opposing defenses. The Sooners rank well in the bottom half in rushing offense. Ole Miss’ defense will inhibit them from being able to lean on their run game.
Oklahoma’s Quarterback Problem
The Sooners need to rely on running the ball because they lack a competent quarterback.
Jackson Arnold has been benched for Michael Hawkins Jr., yet the latter has proven to be so poor that he was brought back to the bench so that Arnold could be given further tries.
Both quarterbacks struggle to be efficient. Arnold seems to have zero understanding of ball placement. But to be fair, he has also had to suffer from an injured and shaken-up offensive line that, largely due to its injury-induced changes, has struggled to protect him.
The Sooners rank toward the very bottom in pass protection, as measured by the rate at which the quarterback gets sacked. Arnold’s lack of composure just makes matters worse. His backup, though, seems to be even more prone to making mistakes and committing turnovers.
The Importance of Having a Bad Quarterback
When the Rebels lost to LSU, LSU’s quarterback made some great throws. Oklahoma does not have a quarterback who can do what LSU’s did.
A simple guideline for your betting is that it’s hard for teams to score much without a competent quarterback, with Florida State providing another example of such a team. The Sooners have combined for twelve points in their last two games.
Recently, Ole Miss held South Carolina to three points largely because the latter lacked competent quarterback play. Oklahoma’s offense, mirroring Florida State in its quarterback problem, faces a similar fate.
Final Thoughts
Both teams face significant deficiencies on offense that will severely limit their scoring, especially in a game in which their opponent is built to take advantage.
Ole Miss’ difficulty with pass-blocking will be amplified by Oklahoma’s stacked pass rush. The Sooners’ quarterback issue will continue to make it hard for them to reach double digits.
Both teams will also struggle to run the ball in what will be a battle of two stout run defenses. Overall, this game won’t sniff a combined total of 40 points.
NCAAF Pick: Under 48.5 (-105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
