Ole Miss vs. LSU College Football Week 7 Free Picks: Will the Tigers Roar in Death Valley?

It’s time to drop the remix. Two weeks ago, the Alabama Crimson Tide were in our college football picks as 2.5-point home dogs versus the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia was only slightly better on paper, so of course we were going to take Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

The scene shifts to Death Valley for Week 7, where the LSU Tigers are available at the full +3 for Saturday’s tilt with the Ole Miss Rebels. And we’re getting -108 juice at Heritage Sports as we go to press. Ole Miss (5-1 SU and ATS) is maybe more than slightly better than LSU (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) on paper, but that extra half-point and two cents make the Tigers the right choice for our Week 7 NCAAF picks.

Is Ole Miss Better Than LSU?

That’s what the polls and the stats say. Ole Miss sails into Saturday’s contest at No. 9 on the AP charts and No. 7 (No. 7 offense, No. 15 defense, No. 47 special teams) on the F+ Ratings at BCF Toys; LSU checks in at No. 13 in the polls and No. 11 (No. 1 offense, No. 53 defense, No. 75 special teams) according to F+.

Is there any real difference between these two SEC programs? Ole Miss has won by considerably larger point margins, allowing just 7.5 points per game – only Texas (7.0) has allowed fewer in the SEC. But neither of Saturday’s combatants has played a challenging schedule up to this point. Ole Miss (minus-0.34 SOS at Sports Reference) in particular was a double-digit chalk in each of their five games thus far.

The narrative for both these teams heading into 2024 was their attempt to take the next step and join the likes of Texas, Alabama, and Georgia atop the SEC – or should I say “re-join” in the case of LSU. They’re getting there at roughly the same pace, but for now, they’re still in the second tier of college football’s leading conference, alongside Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

What About the Over?

Yes, you’d think LSU would be cashing in the Over every week with their FBS-best offense and their hand-waving defense. But the Under is 3-2 for the Tigers, and 5-1 for Ole Miss.

It’s easy to see why the Under has performed so well in Mississippi. Less so for Louisiana State; they might be struggling on special teams, but don’t blame PK Damian Ramos (5-of-6 FG, 21-of-21 PAT). It’s more about the punting, which has been some of the worst in all of college football – although Blake Ochsendorf (four punts) may yet prove to be an improvement over Peyton Todd (10 punts) across a larger sample size.

Even with that, lousy punting means shorter fields for the opponent’s offense, which should lead to higher scores and more Overs. Maybe if Ole Miss weren’t this capable on defense, we’d be more inclined to recommend the Over on that 64-point total, but they are, so we’re not.

The Pick

Did we mention LSU is getting the full three points at Death Valley? Just like Bryant-Denny Stadium was for Georgia, Tiger Stadium will make it tough for Ole Miss to cover Saturday’s contest. And as fate would have it, the Tigers are coming off a bye week, so they’ll be fresh as daisies, while Brian Kelly and his coaching staff will have enjoyed twice as much time as Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss to prepare. Bet accordingly.

NCAAF Pick: LSU +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports

LSU +3 (-108)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.