Oregon vs. Wisconsin College Football Week 12 Picks: Can the Ducks Cover?

Oregon Dominated Maryland

Dillon Gabriel set a new NCAA record for total career touchdowns as Oregon secured a 39-18 home victory over Maryland on Saturday night, extending their undefeated run. Gabriel delivered a strong performance, throwing for 183 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Ducks.

This win marked Oregon’s 14th consecutive home victory. Gabriel’s 3-yard touchdown pass to offensive lineman Gernorris Wilson early in the second half gave him 179 total career touchdowns, surpassing Case Keenum’s previous record of 178 (155 passing, 23 rushing) achieved at Houston from 2007 to 2011. Gabriel later added another touchdown pass to solidify his record.

Missing from Gabriel’s arsenal against Maryland was wide receiver Tez Johnson, sidelined after injuring his shoulder in Oregon’s 38-17 win over Michigan on November 2.

“I’m gonna tell you the same thing I always tell you,” Ducks head coach Dan Lanning said about Johnson’s injury. “As soon as they’re ready to go, we’ll have them out there. We’re going to put player safety first. Tez will be down, certainly, right now in the near future, but I do anticipate us getting Tez back here soon.”

Stepping up in Johnson’s absence was Traeshon Holden, who had posted a career-best 149 yards on six receptions against Michigan. Holden briefly left the Maryland game in the first half with an apparent lower leg injury but returned to action.

Gabriel’s career stats now include 147 passing touchdowns, 32 rushing touchdowns, and one touchdown reception.

Lanning noted the team’s sluggish offensive start and was concerned about the 12 penalties for 95 yards that hindered their performance.

Wisconsin Struggled at Iowa

Wisconsin fell to Iowa in a 42-10 road loss on November 2. The Badgers initially took the lead with Nathanial Vakos’ 38-yard field goal but did not score again until Braedyn Locke connected with CJ Williams for a 14-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Locke finished the game completing 15 of 29 passes for 137 yards.

Wisconsin’s offense struggled after their opening 12-play, 59-yard drive that resulted in Vakos’ field goal. Over their next six possessions, they managed just 67 total yards and were unable to respond to Iowa’s dominance on both sides of the ball.

Key Matchups

Gabriel’s precise passing has been crucial for Oregon. Wisconsin’s defense, vulnerable after conceding 42 points to Iowa, will need to improve coverage to disrupt Gabriel’s rhythm and limit key targets like Holden.

Wisconsin’s offense has struggled with consistency, managing just one scoring drive against Iowa and facing challenges against a pressure-focused Oregon defense.

Oregon’s 12 penalties for 95 yards in their Maryland win indicate a potential area Wisconsin could exploit, but the Badgers must play error-free football to take advantage.

Dillon Gabriel vs. Wisconsin’s Secondary

Gabriel’s ability to control the game through the air has been pivotal for Oregon. With 183 yards and three touchdown passes last week, Gabriel has shown poise even without star receiver Johnson, who is out with a shoulder injury.

Wisconsin’s defense, which allowed 42 points against Iowa, will need to tighten up in coverage and find ways to disrupt Gabriel’s rhythm.

The Badgers must focus on containing Holden, who has proven to be a reliable target, posting a career-best 149 yards against Michigan and remaining effective despite a brief injury scare against Maryland.

Wisconsin’s Offense vs. Oregon’s Defense

Wisconsin’s offensive output has been inconsistent. After opening their game against Iowa with a 12-play, 59-yard drive that led to a field goal, the Badgers failed to maintain momentum, tallying just 67 yards on their next six drives.

Locke managed only 137 passing yards in that loss and will face a tough challenge against an Oregon defense that has shown the ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

If Wisconsin can’t find a way to sustain drives and move the ball effectively, Oregon’s defense could take control early.

Special Teams and Penalties

Oregon’s 12 penalties for 95 yards in their win over Maryland highlighted a potential weakness that Wisconsin could exploit. The Badgers, however, need to be sharp in all phases, as turnovers or wasted opportunities could prove costly against a high-powered Oregon squad.

The Pick

Oregon’s potent offense, led by Gabriel, should give them the edge in this matchup. Wisconsin’s struggles on offense, particularly in sustaining drives and moving the ball effectively, may limit their ability to keep pace. Expect Oregon to capitalize on Wisconsin’s vulnerabilities, especially if the Ducks can minimize penalties and play clean football.

College Football Pick: Oregon -14 (-115) at Bovada

Oregon -14 (-115)

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