Orioles vs. Mets MLB Best Bet for August 20: Ride the Grimace Train

Unlocking the Value

Information wants to be free. Except it doesn’t; what Stewart Brand actually said at the 1984 Hackers Conference was that information “sort of wants to be expensive because it is so valuable,” while at the same time, “information almost wants to be free” because of how easy communication has gotten.

I mention this because I’m about to use some almost-free statistics for today’s baseball pick. We don’t have Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight to kick around anymore; however, I do see some projections for Tuesday’s game between the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets that I can refer to obliquely in this space, and taken as a whole, they have the Mets winning this game around 57% of the time.

You know what is still free? The delightful BMR Odds Converter. Enter 57% as your implied probability, and you get roughly -133 in equivalent American odds. The Mets have just opened as -120 home faves on the MLB odds board at BetOnline. That’s no five-star lock, but it would appear there’s room for at least a fun-size wager on the home side.

Did Grimace Save the Mets?

I’d like to think he saved us all. The anthropomorphic purple taste bud and McDonaldland resident famously threw out the first pitch at Citi Field on June 12; the Mets were 28-37 at the time, but they’re now fighting for a playoff spot at 64-60 (minus-0.75 betting units) as we go to press.

It’s not like we saw this comeback written in the stars. New York had a minus-29 run differential on June 12, for a Pythagorean win-loss record of just under 30-35. That was a couple of games better than their actual record, but not enough to raise any eyebrows in the MLB betting market.

As it stands, the Mets now have a plus-29 run differential and a 65-59 Pythagorean record, so there still isn’t much wiggle room in those numbers to suggest this is an undervalued team – but at least they’re not just lucky to be here within range of a Wild Card berth in the National League.

Who’s Pitching for the Mets?

Jose Quintana (4.64 xFIP) is due up for New York at the top of their rotation. Not that Quintana has been their best starter, although the veteran lefty has somehow pulled in 0.89 betting units in earnings despite a team record of 12-12 (Under 13-10-1).

Quintana’s recent form has also been off, with nine earned runs allowed in 10.2 innings over a pair of Mets losses to Seattle (-127 at home) and Oakland (+168 away) – not the league’s biggest bats by any stretch of the imagination. And he’s got the No. 19-ranked bullpen on the FanGraphs WAR charts to follow him on the mound.

Who’s Pitching for the Orioles?

This is where our story takes a turn. The Orioles (73-52, plus-5.01 units) are at the back end of their rotation Tuesday with Dean Kremer (4.54 xFIP), a fifth-year northpaw coming off two serviceable seasons as a full-time starter. This year, not so much; the O’s are 7-10 behind Kremer (Over 12-5) for a loss of 3.25 betting units.

Baltimore’s eighth-ranked bullpen can pick up some of that slack. And current Mets hitters only have a combined .688 lifetime OPS off Kremer, albeit in just 31 total at-bats (seven hits, five walks, zero homers). But this will be their first crack at Kremer in 2024. Will his start be a masterpiece, like the one Jerry’s girlfriend Nina painted in Season 3? Bet accordingly.

MLB Pick: Mets ML (-120) at BetOnline

Mets ML (-120)

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