MLB Pick: Over 8 (-118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a typically full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with every team in action. We have three plays with great betting value, available on top sportsbooks.
These plays and the latest MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Bay Area, where our model points to a total when the Orioles visit the Athletics.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics
Friday, July 05, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Oakland Coliseum
We see this as a matchup of two pitchers with very deceptive ERAs when Albert Suarez and the Orioles visit Hogan Harris and the Athletics. Therefore, we are betting on the Over in Oakland Friday.
Poor Command Ratio
Albert Suarez is back in the majors at the advanced age of 34 after pitching in Korea for the last two years. And we do give him credit for performing commendably in every role the Orioles have asked of him from starter to reliever to bulk pitcher following an opener. Still, the bottom line is his 2.43 ERA is very fraudulent. For proof, look no further than his xFIP being more than two full runs higher at 4.68.
Albert is struggling with command as he owns a weak K/BB ratio of 6.83/3.34 per nine innings, and he combines that with a low 34.3% groundball rate. His soft/hard contact ratio is nothing special either, at 13.7% / 28.0%, so as usually happens in the American League, we foresee the deceptive ERA converging upwards toward the much loftier xFIP over time.
xFIP Don’t Lie
Although the variance is not quite as extreme as Suarez, Harris also has an overachieving ERA of 3.18 compared to an xFIP that is currently more than 1.50 higher at 4.70. And a lot of Harris’s peripherals mirror those of Suarez.
To wit, Hogan also has a bad K/BB ratio of 7.03/3.18 per nine innings accompanied by a modest 36.9% groundball rate. And he has the worse soft/hard contact ratio in this matchup at an ugly 13.1% / 36.1%. He was never highly regarded as his Stuff+ grading out at just 85 overall and he is already 27 years old after not getting his first taste of the Major Leagues until last season.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that neither of these pitchers are as good as their ERAs. With regression in order on both sides, we are backing the Over in this spot.
Predicted Score: Orioles 6 – Athletics 5
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-118) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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