Orioles vs. Guardians MLB Best Bet: Baltimore To Burn Williams in Cleveland
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LT Profits
- August 4, 2024
MLB Pick: Orioles ML (-132) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We enter Sunday’s full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups 17-10 in our last 27 plays, and we return today with three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds from the top sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes in Cleveland, where our model likes a side when the Orioles visit the Guardians.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
Sunday, August 04, 2024 – 01:40 PM ET at Progressive Field
Ace as Expected
We feel that the Orioles have a bigger pitching advantage Sunday than the line implies with Corbin Burnes facing Gavin Williams and the Guardians. Thus, we are betting on Baltimore at a reasonable price in Cleveland.
The Orioles acquired Burnes during the offseason to become the ace of their staff, and the former Cy Young Award winner has done exactly that. He comes in at 11-4 while leading the Major Leagues in ERA at a spiffy 2.47. If you like consistency, Burnes has allowed three earned runs or less in 21 of his 22 starts this season, and the one time he did not he allowed four earned runs!
The one knock on Corbin Burnes is his strikeout rate of 8.31/9 is below one batter per inning for the first time since his rookie season of 2018. However, he has made up for that with a career-high 50.0% groundball rate and a very nice soft/hard contact ratio of 19,5% / 27.7%. This is also his first start against the Guardians since coming over from the National League, giving him the added benefit of the Cleveland offense being unfamiliar with him.
Command Issues
Gavin Williams has not lived up to the expectations yet of being a first-round draft pick (23rd overall) in 2021, and he was so bad in spring training that he began the season in the minors. He is 1-3 in six starts for the Guardians since being recalled, although to be fair he does own a decent 3.72 ERA and 3.88 xFIP.
However, his development has been held back by command issues, and that has continued this year with a walk rate of 3.41/9 over 29 Major League innings. He is combining that extra traffic on the bases with a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 13.3% / 36.1%, so we do not feel that his current ERA is sustainable.
The Pick
So, what we have here is one of the best pitchers in baseball in Burnes taking on a pitcher in Williams prone to wildness and hard contact. Back the Orioles as manageable road favorites on Sunday.
Predicted Score: Orioles 5 – Guardians 3
MLB Pick: Orioles ML (-132) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
