MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a typical 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday. We are 6-3 in our last nine plays, and we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, you should know that these value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in the Orioles vs. Rangers matchup Sunday.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, July 21, 2024 – 02:35 PM ET at Globe Life Field
Andrew Heaney has been solid for the Rangers this season despite his record, while Dean Kremer has been erratic for the Orioles. Thus, we are backing Texas at a cheap price at home.
Very Consistent
The defending World Champion Rangers are having a disappointing follow-up season at 46-52 overall. However, Heaney is not to blame, as he has given them a chance to win in almost every start. Yet, he has somehow gone 3-10 despite a 3.79 ERA and a fine K/BB ratio of 9 19/2.46 per nine innings over 19 appearances (18 starts).
More importantly, Andrew has been ultra-consistent while allowing three earned runs or less in 16 of his 18 starts including his last 13 starts in a row! And he even threw 2.1 scoreless innings in his lone relief appearance. That horrible luck with the record can be attributed to a lack of run support in his starts, which may not be the case today (more on that in a bit).
Overachieved Last Year
The Orioles lead the AL East by two games over the second-place Yankees, but Kremer has not been a huge contributor to that success. He enters with a losing 4-5 record along with a 4.38 ERA and 4.27 xFIP. In fact, he already has as many losses as he had all last season, when he was thought to have had a breakout year while going 13-5.
However, we feel his record last year had more to do with run support, as his ERA and xFIP were basically in line with this season’s numbers at 4.12 and 4.34 respectively. Dean has had control problems during his MLB career, but that is one area where he showed improvement last season with a walk rate of 2.87/9. However, those issues are back this year at 3.53/9.
Furthermore, Krener has now allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts with a 5.79 ERA and 4.88 xFIP in those outings.
The Pick
Given Kremer’s weak current form, we expect Heaney to finally get the run support he needs to improve his undeserved bad record. We are betting the Rangers in this “buy low” spot in Arlington.
Predicted Score: Rangers 5 – Orioles 3
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-104) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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