Orioles vs. Red Sox Best Bet Wednesday: Scoring To Be Barren in Boston
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LT Profits
- September 11, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 9 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Wednesday brings us a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And we are back with the three plays that, based on the current MLB odds, we feel have the most betting value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in Beantown where our model likes a total when the Orioles visit the Red Sox.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, September 11, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park
We see the potential for a sneaky pitchers’ duel on Wednesday, when a seemingly underrated Nick Pivetta and the Red Sox host an improving Dean Kremer and the Orioles. Thus, we are betting on the Under in Fenway Park.
Nice Strikeout Rate
Pivetta may be 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA coming in, but his xFIP tells a different story at a good 3.52. That xFIP has been fueled by a nice strikeout rate, which is actually nothing new for Pivetta while going mostly unnoticed over the years.
That K-Rate stands at 10.73/9 this season, which will mark the third time in four years that Nick will post a double-digit strikeout rate. He is also in fine current form allowing three runs or less in five of his last six starts, including allowing just one run on five hits in six innings last time out. One of those outings came against the Orioles in Baltimore, where he allowed three runs but on only three hits on August 15th.
Lots of Soft Contact
Now, we were down on Kremer to begin this season, as we felt his 13-5 record last year was fraudulent based on his 4.12 ERA, 4.34 xFIP and some weak metrics. And he has indeed slipped going just 7-9 despite a fairly similar ERA (4.27) and xFIP (4.45). However, we think this year has been the opposite of last year for Kremer in that he has actually been better than his frontline numbers.
Dean has raised his strikeout rate to a good 8.54/9 while seeing a big jump in his soft contact rate to a career-best 22.8%, a combination we always like to see. And it looks like positive regression is in progress as he has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts while allowing one run or less in three of them. This includes his sparkling last outing where he tossed six scoreless innings allowing just two hits with seven strikeouts.
The Pick
Thus, we feel both of these starters are better than their ERAs, which is prompting us to back the Under in Boston.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 4 – Orioles 3
MLB Pick: Under 9 (+102) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
