Packers vs. Eagles NFL Week 1 Picks: Bet the Over in Brazil

Will the Packers Be More Consistent?

Last season, Green Bay’s offense was a rollercoaster, showing flashes of brilliance, particularly late in the season with wins over the Chiefs and a blowout against the Cowboys, before nearly toppling the 49ers. However, the unit also had some disastrous performances, including back-to-back losses to the Raiders and Broncos, and a humiliating defeat to the Tommy DeVito-led Giants.

Jordan Love experienced both highs and lows, adjusting to a young receiving corps. With limited NFL experience heading into 2023, Love and his receivers—Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks, along with tight ends Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave—should be more consistent this year.

Watson’s hamstring issues, which he’s since addressed, significantly impacted the team’s performance. As they continue to grow together, a stronger offensive output in 2024 is expected.

Aaron Jones’ presence was also crucial to the Packers’ offense. When healthy, he was a game-changer, something A.J. Dillon struggled to replicate. Jones, now with the Vikings, has been replaced by the younger and more reliable Josh Jacobs, formerly of the Raiders.

The Green Bay Defense Will Be Fine

Defensively, Green Bay saw some key departures but managed to fill the gaps effectively. Darnell Savage, who had a breakout 2023, was replaced by Xavier McKinney from the Giants.

Despite being overpaid due to market conditions, McKinney brings significant talent and is an upgrade. Additionally, the Packers drafted safety Javon Bullard, who could also see time in the slot.

The Packers also lost linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, who had been a top performer but regressed in 2023. To replace him, the Packers drafted Edgerrin Cooper and Ty’Ron Hopper, who will compete alongside Quay Walker for starting spots. Cooper, though more talented, dropped in the draft due to character concerns.

Green Bay’s defense retains its strength on the edge, with Rashan Gary and Preston Smith combining for 17 sacks last year. Lukas Van Ness, a 2023 first-round pick, also showed promise with four sacks and is expected to take on a larger role.

Kenny Clark, one of the NFL’s top nose tackles, added 7.5 sacks and will continue to be a key player alongside Devonte Wyatt, who is still developing despite recording 5.5 sacks in 2023.

The secondary saw the loss of Rasul Douglas, traded to Buffalo last season, leaving a gap that Corey Ballentine and the injury-prone Eric Stokes struggled to fill. If Stokes can finally live up to expectations, the Packers could have a strong cornerback duo with Jaire Alexander still performing at a high level.

Can Saquon Barkley Help the Eagles?

On the other side, Jalen Hurts has silenced critics, proving to be a top-tier quarterback and leading one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Despite his success, the Eagles lacked a dynamic partner for Hurts in the backfield until now.

Saquon Barkley, signed in free agency, is expected to be a game-changer, bringing both exceptional running and receiving skills. Barkley’s presence could have a similar impact to what Christian McCaffrey has done for the 49ers.

Hurts will also have his top three weapons—A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert—back in 2024. However, the depth behind Brown and Smith was an issue last year, leading the Eagles to trade for Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson, sign Parris Campbell, and draft Ainias Smith and Johnny Wilson. Can any of these players provide reliable support?

The Eagles’ offensive line remains a strength despite the retirement of Jason Kelce. His successor, Cam Jurgens, is a natural fit at center after struggling at guard. Jurgens’ move opens up a spot at right guard, likely to be filled by Tyler Steen, a 2023 third-round pick. The edge blocking will remain elite with Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, forming one of the league’s top tackle tandems.

The Eagles Must Improve Defensively

Last year, the Eagles started strong with a 10-1 record but faltered down the stretch, going 1-5 and getting eliminated by the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. Defensive struggles were a significant issue, prompting major offseason moves.

Vic Fangio was hired as the new defensive coordinator, and the team signed Devin White to boost the linebacker corps. White, known for his speed and coverage ability, will pair with Nakobe Dean, who excels in run support but needs to improve in coverage.

In the secondary, the return of Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, a versatile safety who was missed last year, should provide a boost. The Eagles also drafted Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, both considered steals, to compete for starting roles in the cornerback rotation. Mitchell will challenge aging veterans Darius Slay and James Bradberry, while DeJean will push for the nickel corner spot.

Despite trading away Haason Reddick, their top sack artist, to the Jets, the Eagles acquired Bryce Huff, who recorded double-digit sacks last season. Huff will join a formidable pass-rushing rotation with Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, Nolan Smith, and rookie Jalyx Hunt.

Sweat, though vulnerable against the run, is a talented rusher, while Graham, despite his age, continues to perform at a high level in limited snaps. Smith and Hunt add youth and potential to the mix.

The Eagles’ defensive front is bolstered by young talents like Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter, who should improve with another year of experience. Milton Williams, another young player, has shown significant development and will be a key part of the rotation.

The Pick

Given the altitude of São Paulo, Brazil, at 2,500 feet—second only to Denver among NFL cities—both defenses could struggle with conditioning. With star-studded offenses on both sides, expect a high-scoring affair in this Friday night showdown.

I anticipate a breakout season for Love, who, with new additions like Jacobs and a talented receiving corps, should lead a potent Green Bay offense.

Meanwhile, the Eagles, despite their late-season slump last year, still boast a formidable core led by Hurts, Barkley, Brown, Smith, and Goedert, supported by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

This Friday night game has all the makings of a high-scoring battle.

NFL Pick: Over 48.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Over 48.5 (-108)

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