Packers vs. Eagles NFC Wild Card Round Pick: Is Philly Better Than Green Bay?
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Jason Lake
- January 8, 2025
NFL Pick: Over 45 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Playoffs?! Yes, it’s that special time of year again, when the football betting public suddenly wakes up and starts throwing their money around. The same NFL lines that were getting uber-tight during the regular season are now loose as a goose; they should only get looser with each round of the postseason, until we reach peak floppy at Super Bowl LIX.
In theory. When it comes to Sunday’s NFC Wild Card tilt between the Green Bay Packers (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS) and Philadelphia Eagles (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS), we don’t see much value on either side, with the Eagles favored by four or 4.5 points at the online sportsbooks. But we’re willing to throw a few zloty at the Over, especially now that the total is 45 on the NFL odds board at Heritage after opening at 46.
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 04:30 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Are the Eagles Better Than the Packers?
Maybe a little. According to the advanced stats at nfelo, Philadelphia ranked third in the league this year at plus-0.22 net EPA (Expected Points Added) per play, just ahead of the fifth-place Packers at plus-0.17.
You’re not getting much difference between the two quarterbacks in question. Jordan Love stepped up for the Packers this year, fighting off injury to rank No. 14 overall at plus-0.18 EPA per dropback; Eagles QB Jalen Hurts was No. 15 at plus-0.17 EPA, but made up for it with his feet, posting 0.07 EPA per rush above league-average to Love’s bagel.
Philly’s ground game gives their offense a slight edge on paper; they’ve also out-performed Green Bay in rush defense and pass defense, although by small margins. Home-field advantage was only worth 1.62 points this year according to Jeff Sagarin’s numbers, so I can see why the BMR consensus reports at press time show 64% support for the Packers. However, there just isn’t enough profit margin here for us to recommend anything but a fun-size bet on the NFL spreads.
Why Bet the Over?
Because 81% is larger than 64%. That’s the consensus for the Over, even though the total has dropped slightly since opening. Does this mean the big money is on the Under? It might, and while big bets used to mean sharp money in sports betting, that is certainly not the case anymore with so many sportsbooks adopting the “European” model and slapping betting restrictions on the wiseguys.
So let’s put the stiff-arm on that angle and look instead at Sagarin’s projections, which have these two teams combining for 47.38 points on Sunday. That’s more than two points higher than the posted total, and it crosses the magic number of 47 for NFL totals, so if we’re confident enough in Sagarin’s numbers at this point in the season, there should be enough value on the Over for the standard one-unit wager.
The Pick
The trickier decision is whether to take Over 45.5 (-105) for your Wild Card picks instead of Over 45 (-108) at Heritage. But it’s not that tricky; Wizard of Odds says the “fair price” for moving a half-point off 45 is just over six cents in vigorish. We’d have to see the juice on Over 45.5 drop to -102 or lower before we’d consider tacking on that extra 0.5.
Otherwise, we’ve got what should be decent enough weather for Sunday’s matchup, albeit a bit chilly – and there is some snow in Saturday’s forecast, so maybe that will show up Sunday instead. Temper your bet size accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Over 45 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
