Packers vs. Seahawks Sunday Night Football Pick: Big Opportunity for Seattle

Should We Trust the Seattle Defense?

Coming into the 2024 NFL season, the idea was that rookie coach Mike Macdonald could improve Seattle’s defense to give Geno Smith a better shot at finishing with a record better than 9-8. The Seahawks have some nice weapons, but the defense has been lacking for years now. That’s why they got rid of Pete Carroll and replaced him with the youngest coach in the league after Macdonald led Baltimore to a No. 1 defense across the board in 2023.

So far, the results are encouraging:

• 2022 Seahawks: 9-8 record, 22nd in yards per drive allowed, 24th in points per drive allowed.
• 2023 Seahawks: 9-8 record, 29th in yards per drive allowed, 29th in points per drive allowed.
• 2024 Seahawks: 8-5 record, 10th in yards per drive allowed, 7th in points per drive allowed.

On the surface, there’s been a clear improvement defensively and that should be credited as the reason the Seahawks are winning more games as you can argue the offense has been the same as last year, if not a hair less effective. Veteran Leonard Williams is having a great season, and some of the young players like Coby Bryant and Derick Hall have stepped up in Macdonald’s defense.

However, is this a Seattle defense you can actually trust to slow down good offenses in the playoffs and help the team win games when the offense isn’t playing great? That’s up in the air, and their season results suggest this is largely a schedule-dependent defense.

From Hot Start to Tough Stretch

The Seahawks started 3-0 with an incredibly stingy defense, but it sure helped to face quarterbacks like rookie Bo Nix (Broncos), a soon-to-be-benched Jacoby Brissett (Patriots) and Skylar Thompson (Dolphins) after Tua Tagovailoa was out with a concussion in Week 3.

Seattle then had a 1-5 stretch with real struggles against the likes of Jared Goff (who completed 100% of his passes in Detroit), Brock Purdy (49ers), Josh Allen (Bills) and Matthew Stafford (Rams), who all scored at least 26 points in wins against the Seahawks.

Since the bye week, the Seahawks are 4-0, including a sweep for the 3rd year in a row against Arizona, and they needed 4th-quarter comebacks against the 49ers and Jets.

The Packers come in with a very good coach in Matt LaFleur, a quarterback in Jordan Love who is thriving again, and they know how to move the ball well and score points. The Packers haven’t made multiple turnovers in a game since Week 7, and Love hasn’t been intercepted in his last 3 games. Green Bay also brings a strong rushing game with Josh Jacobs, who rushed for 229 yards in his only career game in Seattle when he was with the Raiders in 2022.

This should be one of Seattle’s toughest tests of the season.

Will the Packers Force Mistakes?

The Packers were also a team looking for better defensive results in 2024 after finally replacing defensive coordinator Joe Barry with Jeff Hafley. The early results were fantastic as Hafley’s defense was getting timely sacks and had 17 takeaways through 6 games, a remarkable number after the Packers had 18 takeaways in 17 games in 2023.

But you can’t always expect those plays to keep coming, and the Packers have hit some rough patches with 7 takeaways in the last 7 games. They have only taken the ball away more than once in 1-of-5 games since Week 9.

The Packers need those splash plays to return. Geno Smith just had his first game all season where he didn’t take any sacks against Arizona, and he also didn’t throw an interception in that game, making it one of the cleanest and most efficient performances of the year for this offense.

However, Smith is 6-0 against Arizona since 2022. That’s an opponent this team plays well. The Seahawks and Packers haven’t played much recently, and it’s a far different matchup from the days of Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson with the addition of Love at quarterback and Macdonald taking over this defense.

Mediocre Metrics

It’s also interesting to note that the Seattle offense has had its top 6 games in offensive EPA on the road this year according to Pro Football Reference. For whatever reason, this offense has been a bit stagnant at home where the team is just 3-4 this year.

Regardless of venue, the Seahawks are also just mediocre on 3rd down (16th) and in the red zone (20th in touchdown percentage) this year. This team has shown the ability to come back with Smith leading 3 game-winning drives in 2024, but these Seahawks are not really built to win a shootout right now.

Green Bay’s run defense is also solid enough, so it shouldn’t be a huge game for Zach Charbonnet (134 yards in Arizona on Sunday) or Kenneth Walker if he plays.

Packers vs. Seahawks (+2.5): Who Covers the Spread?

The Packers are 9-4 with 3 losses to some of the best teams in the league (Lions, Eagles, Vikings) in games where they allowed at least 31 points. Their only other loss was also Detroit in a game where Jordan Love was playing with a bad groin in the rain, a bad combo. But they have passed every other test this season, and they’ll be looking to rebound after a tough loss in Detroit where they tied the game late before losing 34-31.

The Seahawks are pretty cut and dry this season: 8-0 when they allow no more than 21 points and 0-5 when they allow more than 21 points, including 4 losses at home. The Packers have scored at least 24 points in 10-of-13 games this year, and one of the times they didn’t was a Malik Willis start when Love was injured.

It would be nice if the Packers could get back some of their injured players like corner Jaire Alexander and wide receiver Romeo Doubs. But they still have enough on both sides of the ball to score in this game against a suspect defense. The difference will be if they can get after Smith enough and maybe force some mistakes that the Cardinals couldn’t create in Week 14.

Let’s back the Packers to avoid a losing streak and get the cover for your NFL picks to end Sunday.

NFL Pick: Packers -2.5 (-120) at Bovada

Packers -2.5 (-120)

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