Padres vs. Cardinals MLB Best Bet: Scoring is Scarce in St. Louis
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LT Profits
- August 28, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-103) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We return today with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Show Me State, where our model likes a total when the Padres visit the Cardinals.
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San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, August 28, 2024 – 07:45 PM ET at Busch Stadium
We are expecting a good pitching duel and are betting the Under Wednesday when Joe Musgrove and the Padres visit Andre Pallante and the Cardinals.
Back to Old Self?
Joe Musgrove was one of the best pitchers in the National League in 2022 finishing with a 2.93 ERA over 30 starts including a no-hitter. However, he has had two injury-plagued seasons since then, although he still pitched well the 17 times he made it to the mound last year going 10-3 with 3.05 ERA and 3.70 xFIP.
Joe’s overall numbers this season are not as good at 4-4 with a 4.43 ERA and 4.09 xFIP, but it is his three starts since returning from injury that has us excited about his future prospects. He has closely resembled his vintage self since returning from a three-month stint on the injured list, allowing a total of one run in three starts. This includes tossing seven scoreless innings allowing just one hit with nine strikeouts and no walks against the Mets last Friday.
He now faces a St. Louis offense that has slipped to a below-average wRC+ of 95 against right-handed pitchers during the month of August. The Cardinals also rank 23rd in the majors in OPS against righties this month at .690.
Settling in as Starter
Andre Pallante began this season with nine relief appearances, but he has accounted himself well in 14 starts since entering the rotation. Looking at his numbers as a starter only, he has a 3.84 ERA supported by a 3.88 xFIP. His out pitch is a heavy 95.0 MPH sinker that has induced a superb groundball rate of 62.7%.
Andre has settled in nicely in his new role as he allowed one run on only five hits in seven innings his last time out in Minnesota. That marked the seventh time in his last nine starts that he allowed three runs or less. It was also the second straight outing that he went seven innings, erasing any concern about his stamina after previously being a reliever.
The Pick
So, we love the direction that Musgrove is going while Pallante has developed into a reliable starter, which has us backing the Under in St. Louis.
Predicted Score: Padres 4 – Cardinals 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-103) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
