Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Best Bet: Will LA hold of First Place Cease?
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LT Profits
- September 25, 2024
MLB Pick: Padres ML (+122) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a loaded 15-game card of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday. As usual, we are here with three best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel currently hold nice value.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a side in the biggest game of the night Wednesday with the Padres visiting the Dodgers.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
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And make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert covered this game and the Mets vs. Braves bout.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, September 25, 2024 – 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
The Dodgers may own the best record in baseball, but their lead over the second-place Padres would be one game with a loss tonight. We are looking for just that, calling for the upset with Dylan Cease facing Jack Flaherty in Los Angeles.
Still in Great Form
Dylan Cease is having a great season in his first year in San Diego after spending his entire previous career with the White Sox. He is 14-11, but that loss total is unfortunate as he has a 3.42 ERA and a 3.37 xFIP that is 13th best in the Major Leagues. That always makes him attractive as an underdog like he is here.
Cease is a power pitcher with a 96.3 MPH fastball that rates a terrific 129 on Stuff+, and he ranks fifth in the majors with a strikeout rate of 10.74/9. Granted, his walk rate is not great at 3.03/9, but that is still nearly one batter better than the 4.02/9 walk rate last year. Even his groundball rate of 40.3% is decent for a power pitcher, and a big improvement from 36.0% last season.
Best of all, Dylan has retained his great form, tossing 14.1 scoreless innings over his last two starts with 15 strikeouts against two walks.
Not Quite as Good
Now do not get us wrong, as we are fans of Jack Flaherty also. He is 13-7 for the Dodgers and Tigers combined with a 3.10 ERA and a 2.97 xFIP ranked fourth in the majors, as well as ranking third in the majors in strikeout rate at 10,83/9. As great as those numbers are, we do not see enough separation there to be such a decided favorite over Cease.
Furthermore, Flaherty has not been quite as good in Los Angeles since being acquired from Detroit. Yes, he is 6-2 in a Dodger uniform, but his 3.40 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, and 10.01 strikeout rate are all worse than his numbers with the Tigers. He is also not in as good current form as Cease, allowing seven earned runs over nine innings in his last two starts with nine strikeouts and an alarming six walks.
The Pick
While these two fine pitchers have comparable stats for the season, we give Cease the edge when looking at only Flaherty’s numbers in the National League with the Dodgers. This has us betting on the Padres at an underdog price on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Padres 4 – Dodgers 3
MLB Pick: Padres ML (+122) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
