Padres vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 5 Best Bet: Can San Diego Pull Off the Upset?
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Willie Bee
- October 11, 2024
MLB Pick: Padres ML (+128) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Don’t expect things to remain civil Friday night when the Dodgers and Padres collide on the MLB betting card for Game 5 of their NLDS. Let’s break down the latest MLB odds from the top sportsbooks before placing your bets.
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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, October 11, 2024 – 8:08 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
Hollywood Showdown
The stage is set for plenty of drama Friday night in Los Angeles where the Dodgers host the San Diego Padres in a winner-take-all Game 5 of their National League Division Series. But hey, it’s Hollywood where there’s always drama even when there isn’t.
The contest to decide who gets to lose to the New York Mets in the National League Championship Series begins with a pitching matchup from the Land of the Rising Sun. Yu Darvish (8-3, 3.14) is on tap for the Padres while the Dodgers are sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.38) out to the Chavez Ravine bump.
Oddsmakers at the top sportsbooks have established Los Angeles as chalk in the -130 vicinity, and the total is split with some shops carrying 7½ with extra vig on the ‘over’ and others making it 8 with added juice on the ‘under.’
Betts & LA Bullpen Force Game 5
According to media reports, the Dodgers’ 8-0 win Wednesday night in San Diego to force a fifth and deciding game was the equivalent of the 101st Airborne holding off the Germans at Bastogne during the Battle of the Bulge.
Eight different pitchers made it to the mound for Los Angeles in the victory, while Mookie Betts and the top of the batting order scored early and often. After going into Game 3 in a 0-for-22 slump, Betts homered for the second consecutive game to get LA going in the top of the first.
The Dodgers closed around +120 on the MLB odds, marking the third consecutive win by the underdog in this NLDS, and the final pushed an 8-run total to end a 3-game run for the ‘over’ in the series.
On the season, San Diego has won 10 of the 17 matchups, with totals running 5-3 O/U at Dodger Stadium.
Darvish Facing Dodgers for 5th Time This Year
San Diego took Yamamoto to the woodshed in Game 1, scoring 5 times by the time the Dodger rookie got through the third inning. Manny Machado’s 2-run blast in the top of the first put LA in an early hole, but the Dodgers managed to come from behind for a 7-5 win as -135 chalk.
It marked the third time this season for the Padres to rough Yamamoto up, the first two of those taking place in March and April with one of the matchups coming in his MLB debut during the series that was played in South Korea.
All told, Yamamoto has worked 9 innings against San Diego, been charged with 13 runs, and served up 3 HR, two of those long balls off Machado’s stick.
Darvish was solid in Game 2 last Sunday, working the first 7 innings of San Diego’s 10-2 victory that came on a +135 at Bookmaker. The veteran only allowed 3 hits, and did it all on a very efficient 82 pitches.
Even though Darvish missed half the season with a leg injury, it was the fourth time for the 38-year-old hurler to face his former club. Los Angeles won 2 of the 3 games Darvish pitched against the Dodgers during the regular season, one of those in the MLB season opener played in Seoul.
Umpire Notes & Mother Nature
After crew chief Dan Bellino had the dish in Game 4, Tripp Gibson will call balls and strikes in Game 5. Hal Harrison Gibson III just finished his 12th season working games in the majors, and is in his 11th postseason series. It’s his seventh playoff plate assignment.
Gibson was 18-13 O/U during the 2024 regular season, with home teams winning 19 of the 31 games he was behind the plate, and home favorites 16-7.
The weatherman is forecasting a cloudy day in Los Angeles, but no rain in those clouds. The thermometer is expected to be in the upper-70s at first pitch (5:08 p.m. local time), with a very light westerly breeze (left to right).
The Pick
If Tinseltown writes its own script for Game 5, there will be a repeat of the Kirk Gibson home run to win Game 1 of the 1988 Fall Classic, propelling Los Angeles to the World Series Championship. Only it would be Freddie Freeman limping to the plate on a bum ankle this time.
But there won’t be any backdoor slider this time, no fairytale walk-off win, or any other kind of win for Los Angeles. Expect the Padres to jump on Yamamoto for a crooked number early, and then hold on for the win and the right to lose the NLCS to the Mets.
MLB Pick: Padres ML (+128) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
