Padres vs. Marlins MLB Best Bet: Scoring to Cease Down in South Beach
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LT Profits
- August 11, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-101) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We enter Sunday’s 13-game slate of MLB betting matchups 22-13 in our last 35 plays including a +136 winner Friday. We return today with three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds at the top sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes down in South Beach, where our model likes a total at 1:40pm ET when the Padres visit the Marlins.
And don’t forget to check out our other picks:
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
Sunday, August 11, 2024 – 01:40 PM ET at loanDepot park
Dylan Cease of the Padres has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and is facing a weak Marlins offense. This has us betting the Under while taking on Max Meyer in Miami.
4th in Strikeout Rate
Cease had spent his entire career with the White Sox prior to this season, and he is certainly enjoying his first year in the National League. In fact, even his 11-8 record should be better as he owns a 3.40 ERA and is eighth in the Major Leagues with his 3.17 xFIP. And he is probably in the best form of any pitcher in baseball right now, having allowed a total of one run and just six hits over his last five starts covering 28.2 innings including a no-hitter during this stretch!
Dylan has 38 strikeouts over those 28.2 innings, which is not out of the ordinary for a guy with the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the majors this season at 11.51/9. But the biggest key this year for Cease is a career-best walk rate of 2.81/9, almost one full walk lower than his previous best of 3.69/9 in 2021.
He also gets the added benefit here of facing a Miami offense that is 27th in the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at only 86.
One Bad Start
Since we expect the Marlins to do next to nothing against Cease, that would give Meyer some leeway in allowing a few runs while keeping this game Under the total. And while we get that he enters with a high 5.10 ERA, that is deceptive and his xFIP is a bit better at 4.31.
Max has made only six starts this season and he comes off his worst start of the year, allowing six runs in four innings. However, he had been good prior to that one rough outing as he had a 3.81 ERA and 3.65 xFIP going in with a nice K/BB ratio of 8.31/2.08 per nine innings. Thus, he is quite capable of a bounce-back effort.
Furthermore, once Meyer departs, the bullpen has been the best aspect of the Miami team, ranking in the top half of the league in both ERA and xFIP.
So, we expect Cease to continue his dominant form while also expecting Meyer and the bullpen to contain the Padres enough to cash the Under on Sunday.
Predicted Score: Padres 4 – Marlins 1
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-101) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
