MLB Pick: Over 9 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a huge 16-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday due to a make-up doubleheader. We are 8-4 in our last 12 plays, and we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets from top sportsbooks are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the nation’s capital in Wednesday’s Padres vs. Nationals matchup.
For detailed coverage, expert insights, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, check out our MLB World Series betting page.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 – 06:45 PM ET at Nationals Park
We are not big believers in either Mitchell Parker of the Nationals nor Matt Waldron of the Padres despite their good ERAs. We are backing the Over in DC on Wednesday.
Rare Breed
Matt Waldron is a knuckleballer, which has become a dying breed in baseball. And that knuckler has keyed a 3.59 ERA. Still, novelty aside, his xFIP is noticeably higher at 4.23 and his strikeout rate is a rather mediocre 7.91/9. Considering how rare his go-to pitch is, batters are making more contact than you would expect with his swinging strike rate at a meager 8.5%.
The issue there is that much of that contact has been in the air given his ordinary 37.6% groundball rate. And he combines that with a 30.0% hard contact rate, which is not a good sign. Also, unlike knuckleballers of the past that threw it almost exclusively, Matt throws it 39.5% of the time and his other pitches do not grade highly on Stuff+, resulting in a low overall rating of 82.
Disturbing Contact Ratio
Mitchell Parker is obviously the more conventional pitcher here, and the rookie comes in at 5-5 with a 3.90 ERA and a supporting 3.99 xFIP. While those are decent figures, he does not have amazing “stuff” either with an overall Stuff+ of 88 and just a 92.6 MPH fastball rated only a 79.
As you might expect, Mitchell is not a big strikeout guy either at 7.41/9 with a modest swinging strike rate of 10.0%. But the scary part about Parker is his weak soft/hard contact ratio of 15.4% / 33.6%, which is even more concerning for a non-strikeout pitcher.
Adding to that concern is facing a San Diego lineup ranked fourth in the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season at a robust 115.
The Pick
So, we feel that both starting pitchers have deceptive ERAs in this contest with each presenting enough red flags to suggest being very hittable tonight. This has us betting the Over in Washington.
Predicted Score: Padres 7 – Nationals 5
MLB Pick: Over 9 (+102) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
