Patriots vs. Jets Thursday Night Football Pick: Why New England Can Cover in Week 3

What We’ve Seen From The Patriots

New England’s offensive attack lacks high-profile player names and can hardly be considered explosive, so it is easy to dislike the Patriots’ chances in a given game.

And yet, the Patriots are almost 2-0. In Week 1, they stunned the Bengals. 

Most recently, they almost pulled off another upset when they took Seattle to overtime.

The Patriots, who are 2-0 ATS so far, are competing and exceeding expectations because they can rely, in place of an explosive pass attack, on efficient running and strong defense.

What We’ve Seen From The Jets

Before I get into discussing how the Patriots, precisely because they don’t rely on having awesome wide receivers, match up excellently against the Jets, I want to make a broader point based on how the season has developed so far.

By following these two teams through two weeks, it strikes me as ridiculous that the Jets are being favored this heavily against New England.

So far, New York has been dominated by the 49ers. The Jets were down 32-13 before their garbage-time touchdown right before regulation concluded.

Then, the Jets beat a Titans team that, frighteningly, looked like it could win. Tennesse’s quarterback, Will Levis, arguably cost his team the game by committing a middle school-level mistake when he threw a lateral with his team in field goal position, allowing the Jets to regain possession.

The Titans, a winless team that nobody expects to sniff the postseason, were able to make enough plays through the air and on the ground to outgain the Jets by 35 yards and, at the very least, can be said to have played them evenly.

General Takeaways

We’ve learned from the Patriots that they are able to compete with playoff-caliber teams because they have a tough defense that limits the scoring of star-studded offenses and a sufficiently effective offense that puts up just about enough points to win.

On the contrary, the Jets are struggling to compete even against teams like the Titans.

With their weak offensive attack and their significant problems on defense, they absolutely do not look like they should be favored this heavily against New England.

Jets’ Run Defense 

One specific problem that is plaguing New York is its run defense. In Week 1, the Jets made San Francisco’s backup running back Jordan Mason look very good.

In that game against the 49ers, New York allowed 180 rushing yards on 38 carries, as the 49ers continually pounded the rock.

After the Week 1 catastrophe, Jets defenders pledged to improve against the run. They failed, however, to inspire confidence in their run defense.

Despite facing a team with a quarterback whose arm does not command the respect of opposing defenses, who has looked like a bust so far thanks not only to his terrible decisions but also thanks to his general inaccuracy and lack of productivity as a passer, the Jets allowed Tennessee to amass 130 rushing yards on 28 carries.

The Jets struggled with run defense last year, as evident in their ranking of 25^th against the run, and they clearly seem to have the same weakness. They currently rank, you guessed it, 25^th against the run.

New England’s Preference on Offense

It is important to emphasize this weakness of New York’s defense because the Patriots love to run the ball.

They own the fifth-highest run-play percentage and rank fourth with 177.5 rushing yards per game.

In order to thrive on the ground, they rely on two starting-caliber running backs: Antonio Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson. This duo must be very excited to face the Jets.

Jacoby Brissett’s Abilities

All we need is a quarterback who won’t make dumb decisions like Levis.

New England’s starting quarterback is not going to wow people, and that’s ok because he is also going to avoid costing his team points and gifting the Jets points by turning the ball over like Levis does.

Jacoby Brissett has thrown zero interceptions so far and committed zero fumbles.

New England’s Tight Ends

The strongest element of New York’s defense is its cornerback room.

Quarterbacks facing the Jets must be unlikable when they want to rely on their wide receivers to do well against the Jets’ well-reputed cornerbacks. Brissett is not such a quarterback.

Folks want to criticize the quality of New England’s pass attack, but the criticism actually expresses something that will be good for the Patriots in this game. They primarily do not even want to rely on their wide receivers.

Instead of challenging Jets cornerbacks, they’ll want to lean on their tight ends. Expect Brissett to lean on the well-sized targets Austin Hooper and especially Hunter Henry.

Henry is coming off a game in which he caught eight passes for 109 yards. He evidently enjoys strong chemistry with his quarterback.

The takeaway here is that New York barely held off the Titans while benefitting from a mistake-prone quarterback who needed to lean on his wide receivers. The Patriots’ quarterback will be more secure and will lean on his talented tight end group.

New York’s Weak Offense 

The Jets have failed to sniff 300 total yards of offense in any of its games so far.

Aaron Rodgers has not shown any of the dangerousness that he did in his MVP-caliber days.

Coming off an extended injury-induced absence, he has looked physically less talented. His mobility is restricted. He lacks the confidence to throw the ball downfield, as evident in his low IAY (average intended air yards) total.

Rodgers is also not getting help from an efficient running game – New York ranks 20^th in YPC.

Speaking of wide receiver groups, the Patriots might lack any good wide receivers, but the Jets really have only one who is in-shape in Garrett Wilson, and this is not enough.

Christian Gonzalez 

Garrett Wilson, New York’s only good and in-shape wide receiver, will be a non-factor in this game thanks to the strong cornerback play of Christian Gonzalez, New England’s first-round selection from 2023.

When the Patriots beat New York 15-10 in the Jets’ venue last year, Gonzalez held Wilson to 19 receiving yards before Wilson accrued 29 more yards with New England in prevent mode as the game neared its end.

This was the only time that these two players competed against each other, and I don’t see what should change this year.

Gonzalez locked down Ja’Marr Chase in Week 1 of this season, just as he also owned his matchup against fellow star wide receiver Tyreek Hill last year.

At 6’1, he is a well-sized cornerback who thrives against smaller wide receivers against whom he can make use of his length and general size advantage.

New England’s Rush Defense

So, the Jets won’t be able to make use of their one good and in-form pass-catcher, but they’ll also struggle on the ground.

As one of two teams to be allowing fewer than 60 rushing yards per game, New England owns the second-best run defense.

The Patriots benefit here from the presence of Davon Godchaux on the inside.

His presence allows his teammates to make tackles more easily, one prominent example being linebacker Anfernee Jennings, whose run-stopping metrics and PFF run defense grades provide evidence of his success against the run.

Jennings is a valuable defender who, among other things, will set the edge in order to limit the running back’s options.

Folks thought that New England’s defense might regress without Bill Belichick. 

However, the defense is continuing to thrive, as its defensive line and linebacker coaches from last year have been promoted this year, and as it relies on solid defensive backs like Gonzalez plus the safety duo of Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers, whose PFF grades indicate their excellence, especially against the run but also in coverage.

Takeaways

New York’s struggles against the 49ers and Titans along with New England’s competitiveness so far make it apparent that oddsmakers have a lot of adjusting to do – they are giving the Jets way too much respect and the Patriots too little.

New England is 2-0 ATS because of its strong run game and defense. New York is a great candidate to struggle against the Patriots’ running back group. The Patriots also match up well against the Jets because they can lean on their tight ends and avoid challenging the strongest members of New York’s defense.

Meanwhile, the entirety of New England’s defense will thrive, with Gonzalez matching up well against New York’s one dangerous pass-catcher and with the Patriots’ rush defense remaining unchallenged.

The Jets will struggle mightily to score, while the Patriots will easily be effective enough in order to cover.

NFL Pick: Patriots +6.5 (-112) at BetOnline

Patriots +6.5 (-112)

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