NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss +3½ (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
After scoring big on the transfer portal, Ole Miss could be a CFP force to reckon with in 2024. But will the Rebels upset the NCAAF odds and prove to be a force to reckon with in the Peach Bowl against Penn State? Let’s find out while looking for the best picks at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, December 30, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
On the surface, it’s easy to look at this year’s Peach Bowl as Ole Miss and its unstoppable offensive force colliding with Penn State as the immovable object on defense.
But the Nittany Lions took a hard hit with players opting out of the game as they eye the 2024 NFL Draft, thus making the Rebels a live ‘dog with shops like BetOnline favoring Penn State by 3½ and selling the total at 48½.
Lions, Rebels Meet for 1st Time
Penn State last faced a team from the SEC early on the 2022 schedule, the Nittany Lions romping to a 41-12 triumph on the road at Auburn as small favorites and almost sending the contest past a 48-point total on their own.
Mississippi is facing its first Big Ten squad since January 2021 at the Outback Bowl in Tampa Bay, where the Rebels upset Indiana 26-20 as 9-point underdogs. That was their first clash with a Big Ten school since being routed by Michigan at the 1991 Gator Bowl.
Tale of the Tape
Ole Miss 10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U
- Offense: 34.8 PPG, 455.4 YPG
- Defense: 22.3 PPG, 371.9 YPG
Penn State 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS, 6-6 O/U
- Offense: 37.2 PPG, 391 YPG
- Defense: 11.4 PPG, 223.3 YPG
Ole Miss Roster Intact
While many schools are lamenting losses to the transfer portal, Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss are celebrating their additions. Added to some of the high school commits the Rebels have received, the roster shaping up in Oxford is already causing waves on the 2024 NCAAF futures odds.
None of those players will be appearing in this matchup. However, though the good news is by avoiding the loss of a single key player, there should be a strong sense of continuity for the team during preparations.
Jaxson Dart runs the spread offense for Kiffin and finished just a little shy of 3,000 yards passing with an excellent 20:5 TD/interception ratio. The biggest problem for the junior from Utah this year was staying upright after being sacked 26 times.
Dart is no doubt happy about having his top three downfield targets: Tre Harris, Dayton Wade, and Jordan Watkins. The trio combined to haul in 155 passes, 15 of those for scores.
Mississippi’s ground game finished fourth in the SEC, averaging nearly 180 yards per game. The tandem of Quinshon Judkins (1,052 yds) and Ulysses Bentley IV (571 yds) was a bit underrated, with Judkins’ 15 rushing touchdowns leading the SEC.
Can PSU Rebuild O-Line in Time for Kickoff?
Meanwhile, in Happy Valley, James Franklin and the Nittany Lions ended up in the red in the transfer portal/early NFL exit game, taking some major hits on the defensive side of the ball, beginning with Chop Robinson.
The linebacker-turned-end is projected as a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after earning All-Big Ten honors. Linebacker Curtis Jacobs, third on the team with 47 tackles, and starting cornerback Kalen King, also opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Penn State will be without its best two receivers, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Theo Johnson, as well. Lambert-Smith topped the Nittany Lions in receptions (53) and yards (673), with Johnson just behind him (32 rec, 325 yds) while adding six touchdowns.
Those losses would normally be enough for a team that beat the college football odds nine times out of 12 to overcome, but they’re compounded by the Nittany Lions breaking in practically a new offensive line for the Peach Bowl.
Olu Fashanu passed up potential 1st-round money in the last NFL Draft, and the junior is rated by several services as the top OT and a sure pick for the 1st round next year. The entire right side of the line, guard Sal Wormley and tackle Caeden Wallace, has opted out, joined by center Hunter Nourzad.
Recent Bowl Results & Betting Trends
The Rebels are appearing in their fourth consecutive bowl game, and 40th all-time. They have enjoyed bowl season overall with a 24-15 record, though the Rebels have dropped their last two after falling to Texas Tech in last year’s Texas Bowl.
Across the last five bowl trips, Ole Miss is 2-3 SU and ATS, with all five contests coming up short of the totals.
Penn State has been even more successful than Ole Miss in the bowl game column. The Nittany Lions are making their 53rd appearance, and are 31-19-2. This is their ninth bowl trip in the last 10 years, the lone exception being the pandemic 2020 campaign. Penn State has split its last six bowl games, going 4-2 ATS and 5-1 O/U.
The Pick
While the Nittany Lions have capable backups for the players they’ve lost to early exits, getting a new offensive line to mesh on such short notice won’t be easy. The Rebels plus the points, for my college football picks.
NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss +3½ (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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