Penn State vs. Oregon Big Ten Championship Game Free Picks

Oregon’s Big Ten Connection

It this Champ Week – or is it the Rose Bowl? It still doesn’t feel quite right to have the Oregon Ducks (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS) in the Big Ten, even if there is that barest of connective tissue between the Ducks and this storied conference; Oregon won each of their last three Rose Bowls representing the Pac-12, although their 2014 trip to Pasadena was for a spot in the National Championship Game, versus Florida State instead of the usual Big Ten opponent.

Be that as it may, the Ducks haven’t faced the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) since the 1995 Rose Bowl, which Penn State won 38-20 to finish the year undefeated. Pretty much everything from that game will be different this Saturday when they play for the Big Ten title at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis – but will the result change?

Who knows. But here we are with two high-quality teams playing on neutral ground, and the Lions getting 3.5 points at Heritage Sports as we go to press. Of course we’re jumping on Penn State for our NCAAF picks; the early BMR consensus reports show 76% support for the Lions at this price.

Is Oregon the Best Team in College?

They’re one of the best. The Ducks are the unanimous No. 1 team on both the AP and Coaches polls, but the advanced stats at BCF Toys have Oregon second to Ohio State according to their F+ Ratings, and Jeff Sagarin has the Ducks fourth overall behind Notre Dame, Texas and OSU.

But what if we focus purely on their results from 2024? Sports Reference also has Oregon (plus-20.09 SRS) ranked fourth according to their Simple Rating System, behind the Irish (plus-21.28), Buckeyes (plus-21.25) and Longhorns (plus-20.34). We’re basically splitting hairs when it comes to these four teams, but yes, the Ducks might be a bit overvalued coming into Champ Week at No. 1 in the polls.

Is Penn State Better Than Oregon?

Not on paper. The Nittany Lions are No. 3 on both the AP and Coaches polls, but sixth according to F+, seventh on Sagarin’s charts, and fifth according to SRS at plus-17.79. Again, maybe the Lions are just a bit overvalued themselves in the marketplace.

Either way, there isn’t too much difference in performance level between Penn State and Oregon. Sports Reference has the Ducks rated 2.3 points higher on neutral ground; Sagarin has the gap closer to two. It’s all too easy to put the Lions in our Champ Week picks when they’re getting 3.5 points. It might even be worth an entire single unit of your bankroll, given the added value of that half-point above the magic number three.

Not that betting against Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel (31 combined TDs, six INTs) is ever comfortable. But Penn State has made big strides this year on offense, thanks in large part to the arrival of co-ordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas. And maybe Lucas Oil Stadium isn’t neutral ground after all, given PSU’s previous trip to the 2016 Big Ten title game (which they won) under head coach James Franklin. Every bit of experience helps.

The Pick

Before you unload on this contest, keep in mind that Penn State’s special teams (No. 75 overall per F+) could be their undoing Saturday. But they’ll have the advantage in both defense and rushing, which also tend to be overlooked by casual bettors. Are the Ducks destined to win this game by a mere field goal? Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

College Football Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Penn State +3.5 (-108)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.