Penn State vs. USC College Football Week 7 Picks: Hammer the Over on Saturday

Penn State Dominated UCLA

Drew Allar led Penn State to a 27-11 victory over UCLA on Saturday, throwing for 237 yards and a touchdown while adding a rushing score. Without star running back Nick Singleton, the Nittany Lions leaned on Tyler Warren, who hauled in a touchdown just before halftime, and Kaytron Allen, who powered his way into the end zone from one yard out in the third quarter.

Allar set the tone early with his own one-yard scoring run in the second quarter. Kicker Ryan Barker chipped in with two field goals, and Penn State’s defense clamped down in the second half to wrap up their four-game home stand.

Allen, a bruising runner, churned through the UCLA defense all afternoon. Allar was sharp with his passes, and the defense forced four punts and two turnovers on downs while holding a third consecutive opponent under 100 rushing yards.

Singleton, who was suited up and took part in pre-game warmups, ultimately sat out. Head coach James Franklin, adhering to his policy of only announcing season-ending injuries, provided no further details on Singleton’s status.

This marked the first game of the season in which Penn State failed to reach 100 yards on the ground, managing just 85. Allen led the charge with 78 yards on 21 carries, and promising freshman Quinton Martin Jr. saw increased action in Singleton’s absence.

USC Struggled in Minnesota

In another matchup, Max Brosmer’s fourth-and-goal plunge from the 1-yard line with under a minute left gave Minnesota a dramatic 24-17 upset win over USC on Saturday. Brosmer notched his third rushing score of the game to seal the victory.

USC quarterback Miller Moss, who topped 300 yards passing in two of the first four games, found tougher sledding against a stingy Gophers secondary. He completed 23 of 38 passes for 200 yards and a single touchdown, facing a Minnesota defense that entered the week leading the FBS in pass defense.

Woody Marks led the Trojans on the ground, tallying 134 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, but the team’s early struggles continued. USC has now started sluggishly for the third straight game, trailing Michigan 14-3 at halftime in a 27-24 loss and falling behind Wisconsin 21-10 before rallying for a 38-21 win.

Penalties also plagued the Trojans, who racked up eight for 59 yards. A costly unnecessary roughness call on Easton Mascarenas-Arnold during a punt return extended Minnesota’s game-winning drive, gifting the Gophers 15 extra yards to set up the go-ahead score.

Key Matchups

Allar is coming off a strong performance against UCLA, but without Singleton, Penn State’s offense remains a bit unbalanced. On the other side, USC has shown flashes of brilliance but continues to battle slow starts and costly mistakes. This game will hinge on which team can maintain focus and avoid self-inflicted errors.

Allar has been efficient, spreading the ball to multiple targets, but USC’s secondary, led by a veteran safety duo, has shown the ability to force turnovers. If Allar stays poised in the pocket and avoids risky throws, he can exploit mismatches against USC’s corners, especially if they fail to generate a pass rush.

The key will be whether the Trojans can disrupt his timing with a mix of blitzes and coverage shifts, something they’ve struggled to execute consistently.

With Singleton likely out or limited, Allen will carry the bulk of the rushing workload. He’s been a tough, downhill runner, but Penn State’s run game could be limited if USC stacks the box.

The Trojans’ front seven has been vulnerable to physical running backs, giving up over 100 rushing yards in three of their last four games. If Allen can wear down the defense and open up the play-action game, it’ll make life much easier for Allar and Penn State’s offense.

USC’s offensive line has struggled to keep Moss clean, and he’s looked shaky under pressure. Against a Penn State defense that ranks among the best in the country at generating sacks, Moss’s ability to get the ball out quickly will be crucial.

If Penn State can force him into obvious passing downs, the Nittany Lions’ front four will look to dominate the line of scrimmage and create turnovers.

X-Factors

The Nittany Lions have been up and down in the red zone, occasionally settling for field goals instead of touchdowns. If USC can bend but not break and keep Penn State from turning long drives into seven points, they’ll have a chance to stay within striking distance.

The Trojans have been plagued by penalties, particularly in key situations. They’ve given up crucial yardage at the worst times, including a costly personal foul that extended Minnesota’s game-winning drive last week. Lincoln Riley’s team needs to clean up the mental mistakes if they hope to have a chance against a disciplined Penn State squad.

The Pick

This game could start slow as both teams test each other’s defenses. Expect Penn State to control the tempo early, relying on Allen to establish the run while Allar takes calculated shots downfield.

USC’s defense may hold up initially, but unless their offense can string together consistent drives, Penn State will eventually break through.

Moss will show flashes, but under constant pressure, mistakes are likely. Penn State’s defensive front will force a couple of turnovers, and the Nittany Lions will capitalize, putting the game out of reach by the fourth quarter.

This matchup has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair, with both teams boasting explosive playmakers on offense. Expect plenty of points as both sides look to outgun each other in a shootout.

College Football Pick: Over 48 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Over 48 (-108)

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