Phillies vs. Braves MLB Best Bet: Not a Lot of Runs with Nola, Fried
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LT Profits
- August 21, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-107) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We return with three plays for Wednesday that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Peach State, where our model likes a total when the Phillies visit the Braves.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, August 21, 2024 – 07:20 PM ET at Truist Park
Good Pitcher Facing Disappointing Offense
We are looking for a good old-fashioned pitching duel in Atlanta Wednesday, and are thus betting the Under when Aaron Nola and the Phillies visit Max Fried and the Braves.
Aaron Nola may now be considered the third starter on the Phillies’ staff due to the presence of Zack Wheeler and the emergence of Cristopher Sanchez. If that is the case, it would make Nola possibly the best third starter in baseball at 11-6 with a 3.45 ERA and 3.62 xFIP. And he easily has the best knuckle curve in the game with a Stuff+ rating of 135 with tremendous late movement.
Aaron’s strikeout rate is a bit down from 9.39/9 last season, but it is still good at 8.30/9 accompanied by a walk rate of 2.28/9. He has also lowered his hard contact rate to 29.9% from 32.3% last year, resulting in an improved home run rate of 1.29/9 from 1.49 in 2023. And Nola has been consistent as usual, allowing three earned runs or less in 20 of his 25 starts.
He is facing a disappointing Atlanta offense with a wRC+ of only 95 against right-handers after being one of the best offenses in baseball last year. The Braves have also topped three runs just once in the last five games.
Throws Grounders
Max Fried has pitched better than his 7-7 record as he too is sub-4.00 in both ERA and xFIP at 3.62/3.47 respectively. And while we get that he has not been great in his three starts since coming off the injured list with a 7.90 ERA in 13.2 innings, he has 20 strikeouts over those starts for a K-rate of 13.17/9. Also, his velocity was up last start over his first two return outings, so feel he is on edge to return to his good form.
The key to Max’s success has always been his ability to generate groundballs. Well, he is doing it again this year ranking fourth in the majors among pitchers with at least 100 innings in groundball rate at 57.9%. That is especially impressive when combined with a good strikeout rate of 8.51/9 and an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 16.0% / 23.5%.
The Pick
With Fried’s underlying metrics better than his frontline stats since returning from injury and Nola his usual solid self all year, back the Under in Atlanta.
Predicted Score: Phillies 4 – Braves 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-107) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
