Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 3 Best Bets: Philadelphia Is Feasting

Today’s Starter for the Phillies

Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies in Game 3 today. Those inclined to bet on the Mets might be remembering Nola’s last start against them.

While Nola did perform poorly in that start, we need to respect his ability to bounce back when given another opportunity to pitch against the same opponent.

For example, he gave up six runs to Atlanta in his first start of the season. 

In his rematch against the Braves, he collected the win. In his following two starts against them, he improved both times relative to his previous start against them.

Nola In The Postseason

Nola’s outlook for today’s game is positive because of his postseason history. He has faced a division rival three times in his postseason career.

In those three games, he is 3-0, having beaten the Braves twice and the Marlins once.

Let’s remember that his best start of the regular season this year came against the Mets, in their venue, where he pitched a complete game shutout.

Nola is certainly capable of dominating the Mets, and history suggests that he will at least pitch well enough to get the win.

What Makes Nola So Tough 

In descending order of frequency, Nola throws a knuckle curve, four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, and cutter.

Part of what makes him unpredictable is that he throws a mixture of five different pitches, none of which he throws as much as 33 percent of the time and all of which he throws with over nine percent frequency. Batters have less of a sense of what pitch to expect from Nola than they do from his sinker-heavy counterpart pitching for the Mets today.

With his diverse selection of pitches, Nola is a classic example of a pitcher who thrives without throwing hard.

He compensates for the lack of pure velocity in his pitches by playing his pitches off each other in order to create the perception of higher velocity.

His fastball, for example, feels fast when he deploys it after throwing his knuckle curve, which averages 13.4 fewer mph. In addition to mixing velocities, he’ll also mix locations.

He likes to bury his knuckle curve and, though he can command it well by distributing it along different regions of the strike zone, he is inclined to elevate his fastball.

By playing these two pitches off each other, he keeps batters off-balance not only by changing pace but also by changing their eye level.

It is intelligent of Manaea to throw his knuckle curve and fastball most often because they are his two most effective pitches. Opponents slug .381 against the former and .318 against the latter.

A pitcher needs at least one pitch that he can really rely on to carry him through the toughest moments of a given game, and Nola has two such pitches.

New York’s Starter Today

Sean Manaea starts for the Mets today. Manaea does not possess Nola’s level of command.

Heat maps illustrate the former’s tendency to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the plate.

At the same time, Manaea walks over three batters per nine innings.

Key Stats

The difference in quality between Nola and Manaea becomes most apparent in the postseason.

Manaea’s outlook is negative today largely because he is 0-2 in four postseason outings. His team has lost in all of his postseason appearances.

It is not like his team’s lineup has been underperforming when he pitches in the postseason. Instead, he struggles to pitch well: his career postseason ERA is 10.66.

Even in this regular season, he was already struggling against the Phillies. He yielded a 5.40 ERA against them.

Philly Batters Against Manaea

Philadelphia’s batters own a solid track record against Manaea. In 97 at-bats, they hit .309 and slug .680 against him.

Among others, look out for Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos.

Both batters already show great form currently. Harper slugs .818 against Manaea, Castellanos 1.000.

Takeaway

This will be a strong Phillies win in which they, taking advantage of their starting pitcher advantage, assert themselves early.

As evident in their low ERAs, Philadelphia has several effective relievers who have proven themselves to be reliable options to secure a lead. Given the above information, it makes sense to place two related wagers.

Sportsbooks are giving us a very attractive deal for the Phillies leading through five innings. The price for the Phillies to win the game also definitely feels cheap.

MLB Pick: Phillies First Five Innings RL (+130) at BetOnline

MLB Pick: Phillies ML (-109) at BetOnline

Phillies ML (-109)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.