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Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 4 Best Bet: Quintana to Close Out Philly
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LT Profits
- October 9, 2024
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MLB Pick: Mets ML (+100) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are 6-3 thus far in the 2024 MLB Playoffs, which continue with both Game 3s of the ALDS and both Game 4s of the NLDS Wednesday. And we are here with the three plays that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds from top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors a side in the Big Apple on Wednesday in the Phillies vs. Mets matchup.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Yankees vs. Royals ALDS Game 3
- Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Game 4
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more advice on today’s games, featuring the Yankees vs. Royals and Dodgers vs. Padres.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Wednesday, October 09, 2024 – 05:08 PM ET at Citi Field
The Mets took a 2-1 series lead on the Phillies with a 7-2 win yesterday, leaving them one win away from a trip to the NLCS. We are now looking for them to close things out in a matchup of two pitchers heading in opposite directions with Jose Quintana facing Ranger Suarez.
Hot Pitcher
Jose Quintana had mediocre overall numbers for the Mets this season going 10-10 with a decent 3.75 ERA but a worse 4.44 xFIP. However, that does not tell the full story as he was one of the best pitchers in baseball during September, and that success carried into the playoffs. In fact, starting with his start on August 25th, Quintana allowed a total of three earned runs over his last six starts, covering 36.1 innings (0.74 ERA).
Jose had a 61.9% groundball rate during that stretch, which included a start against the Phillies on September 13th where he allowed just three hits over seven scoreless innings. He then tossed six scoreless innings in his Wild Card Series start allowing four hits while inducing 11 groundballs for a 64.7% rate. That is the key to Quintana’s game, as he relies on his 90.4 MPH sinker and a curveball rated 117 on Stuff+ to continuously “throw grounders”.
Long Time Since Quality Start
Fellow southpaw Ranger Suarez had the better overall numbers between these two starters, going 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA and 3.28 xFIP. However, unlike Quintana, Suarez seems to have peaked early and struggled in the second half of the season. He started the year at 9-0 and still sat at 10-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 2.81 xFIP after his start on June 25th.
What was not known at the time was that would turn out to be his last Quality Start of the season! Ranger went without one over his last 11 starts while going 2-6 with a 6.54 ERA and 4.11 xFIP. He had a mediocre K/BB ratio over those outings of 7.91/3.78 per nine innings with just an 8.6% swinging strike rate.
Granted, the Phillies and Mets did tie for third in the Major Leagues in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers at 118.
The Pick
But Quintana was clearly the better pitcher late in the year, and he proved he can handle the Philadelphia lineup the last time he faced them. Thus, bet on the Mets to end this series at home on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Mets 5 – Phillies 2
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+100) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
