Oddsmakers have released their MLB odds for today and one matchup in particular caught my eye.
Let’s go ahead and break down the Phillies vs. National and why you should consider investing in the first five innings to go Under at the top-rated sportsbooks.
MLB Best Bet: First-Five Innings Under 4 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Sunday, April 07, 2024 – 01:35 PM ET at Nationals Park
Philadelphia’s Starter
Cristopher Sanchez starts for the Phillies today. Philadelphia’s starter showed the quality of his pitches last week when he struck out eight Reds batters in five innings last week.
While allowing two runs in five innings isn’t amazing, he was the unfortunate victim of a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). Sanchez’s 0.60 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how strongly he performed.
The velocity of his pitches has risen relative to last year. His pitches also show unique and powerful movements. He’s, moreover, locating them well along the edges of the strike zone.
Sanchez vs. Nationals
Last year, Sanchez thrived against the Nationals. He allowed a 2.25 ERA in two starts against them. This year, the Nats will suffer against a stronger version of Sanchez. They match up poorly against him, ranking 28th with a .226 slugging rate against his three favorite pitches, the sinker, changeup, and slider, from lefties.
Washington’s Starter
MacKenzie Gore starts for the Nationals today. Gore is primed to improve this week. He did a great job of inducing soft contact in his previous start but was unfortunate to allow a high ERA.
His 3.20 FIP shows how well he in reality performed. Despite certain misleading statistics, Philadelphia is a good opponent for him to face.
His overall stats against the Phillies are bad because he’s struggled in Philadelphia. But he’s been good against the Phillies outside of their home venue.
MLB Best Bet
Gore will benefit from the fact that this is a day game. His career win percentage skyrockets in day games. Accordingly, his career daytime ERA is 1.27 lower than his career nighttime ERA.
As for the Phillies, they are hitting much worse during the day than at night. Their OPS (on-base plus slugging) is .81 lower in day games so far.
Moreover, they match up poorly against Gore, slugging .359 against his pitches from lefties.
MLB Best Bet: First-Five Innings Under 4 (+100) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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