MLB Pick: Over 7 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a big 16-slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday due to a make-up doubleheader. We are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the Phillies vs. Orioles matchup at 1:35 pm Sunday.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, June 16, 2024 – 01:35 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Even though there is a battle of aces in Baltimore on Sunday, we feel the posted total is low enough to support the over with Corbin Burnes and the Orioles hosting Zack Wheeler and the Phillies.
Reduced Strikeouts
Burnes was acquired by the Orioles to be the ace of their staff, and he has fit that bill well going 7-2 with a spiffy 2.08 ERA. However, the news is not all good, as he has continued his pattern of reduced strikeout rates over the past three seasons. And while his xFIP remains very good at 3.30, that is still 1.22 higher than his ERA, leaving some room for regression.
Corbin won the 2021 Cy Young Award, but he has seen his strikeout rate drop from the previous year each of the last three seasons and he appears to be in line for a fourth straight such season. More alarmingly, that strikeout rate has now dipped below one batter per inning at 8.52/9 from 9.29/9 last year and he has not exceeded six strikeouts in any of his last four starts.
He will not get much help from a disciplined Philadelphia lineup ranked third in the majors in offensive walk rate at 9.5% while not striking out that much, ranking 18th at 21.5%.
Facing Tough Offense
Now, Wheeler also has impressive frontline stats at 8-3 with a nice 2.16 ERA. And like Burnes, Wheeler has a still good xFIP that lags noticeably behind the ERA at 3.31. Wheeler has benefitted from a lucky .231 BABIP allowed, and his command has not been as good as past seasons with his walk rate of 2.77/9 up from 1.83 last year.
It is also significant that his xFIP rises further to 3.64 on the road compared to 3.08 at home, and he is facing a very good Baltimore offense. The Orioles rank an identical fifth in the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at 113 and in OPS against them at .749. The O’s do not strike out much either, ranking even better than the Phillies in 19th at 21.3%.
So, while each of these starters is deserving of their ace tags, they each have a few flaws that the good opposing offenses can take advantage of. Therefore, bet the Over at this low total.
Predicted Score: Orioles 5 – Phillies 4
MLB Pick: Over 7 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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