Purdue vs. Houston 2025 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Best Bets

How They Got Here

Purdue dominated McNeese in the second round of the tournament, cruising to a 76-62 victory on Sunday. Trey Kaufman-Renn was the star, posting 22 points, 15 rebounds, and three assists.

Fletcher Loyer chipped in with 15 points and five assists, while Braden Smith contributed 10 points, five assists, and four rebounds in a well-rounded team effort.

Houston, on the other hand, had to grind out an 81-76 win over a battle-tested Gonzaga squad on Sunday. L.J. Cryer took over with a 30-point explosion, J’Wan Roberts added 18 points, eight rebounds, and five assists, and Emanuel Sharp provided 12 points in a hard-fought victory.

Smith is a special talent, and there’s a strong case that he’ll be the best guard on the floor. His ability to orchestrate the offense for Purdue and create for teammates makes him a dynamic playmaker, and he’s more than capable of scoring when needed.

However, Houston has an elite backcourt, both offensively and defensively, with multiple players who can match up well against him. The Cougars’ perimeter defense could make life difficult for Smith, limiting Purdue’s offensive flow.

That’s especially concerning for the Boilermakers when considering Houston’s defensive versatility on the wings. The Cougars have the personnel to throw different looks at Kaufman-Renn, potentially taking him out of the game and forcing Purdue into uncomfortable situations.

This is a nightmare season for Purdue to be missing a dominant big man in the middle. A traditional 7-footer could have been the perfect counter to Houston’s relative lack of size in the frontcourt, but Daniel Jacobsen’s absence looms large.

Instead, the Boilermakers now face a team that mirrors their size but outclasses them in nearly every other key area.

Houston thrives in games like this—physical, grind-it-out battles where they impose their will defensively. After a shaky second half against Gonzaga, Kelvin Sampson is sure to have his team laser-focused and ready to pounce in this Sweet 16 showdown.

Expect the Cougars to ramp up the defensive pressure and make Purdue uncomfortable from the opening tip.

On the offensive side, Houston shouldn’t have too much trouble generating points. This is one of the most efficient offensive teams Sampson has ever coached, with Cryer, Sharp, and Milos Uzan all capable of breaking down defenses.

The Cougars also have a deep bench filled with skilled, high-energy players who can contribute at a high level. Expect Houston’s guards to relentlessly attack the paint and put Purdue’s defense to the test.

Both of these teams prefer a slow, methodical approach. Houston ranks 360th in the country in adjusted tempo, while Purdue sits at 298th. With neither team looking to push the pace, this game is likely to be a grind.

For the total to go Over, both squads would need to shoot the lights out—something that’s far from guaranteed in a defensive battle like this.

Key Matchups

Purdue’s location advantage might give them a slight edge in crowd support, but Houston’s defensive intensity and backcourt depth could dictate the flow of this March Madness contest.

Braden Smith vs. Houston’s Defensive Backcourt

Smith has been the engine for Purdue’s offense, using his court vision and scoring ability to keep the Boilermakers humming. However, he’ll face relentless defensive pressure from a Houston backcourt that thrives on disrupting opposing playmakers.

The Cougars have multiple guards who can rotate on Smith, cutting off passing lanes and forcing Purdue into uncomfortable offensive sets. If Houston can limit his effectiveness, the Boilermakers may struggle to create high-quality shots.

Trey Kaufman-Renn vs. Houston’s Defensive Wings

Kaufman-Renn is coming off a big performance, but he faces a much tougher challenge here. Houston has a collection of physical, athletic wings capable of matching up with him, limiting his scoring opportunities and making it difficult for Purdue to establish an interior presence.

If the Cougars succeed in neutralizing Kaufman-Renn, the Boilermakers will need their perimeter players to step up, which won’t be easy against an elite Houston defense.

L.J. Cryer and Houston’s Guards vs. Purdue’s Perimeter Defense

Cryer exploded for 30 points against Gonzaga and will be the primary scoring threat for Houston. With a deep rotation of skilled guards, the Cougars will look to exploit Purdue’s defensive weaknesses by attacking the basket and drawing fouls. If the Boilermakers can’t keep Houston’s perimeter attack in check, it could be a long night.

Turnover Battle

Both teams play at a deliberate pace—Houston ranks 360th in adjusted tempo, while Purdue sits at 298th—which means every possession will be crucial. If Purdue turns the ball over against Houston’s aggressive defense, it could lead to easy transition points for the Cougars.

On the flip side, Houston must avoid the scoring droughts that plagued them in the second half against Gonzaga.

The Pick

This game will likely start as a defensive slugfest, with both teams trying to impose their will in the half-court. Purdue will look to control the tempo with methodical offensive sets, but Houston’s pressure defense will make it difficult to execute.

If the Boilermakers struggle to create clean looks, Houston’s depth and physicality should wear them down over time. The Cougars’ ability to generate turnovers and push the pace selectively could be the difference in a high-scoring game, especially with Purdue missing a dominant inside presence.

NCAA Tournament Pick: Over 133.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Over 133.5 (-110)

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