Rams vs. Lions Sunday Night Football Picks: Side With Detroit in NFL Week 1 

The LA Offense Will Be Fine

For years, the Rams were known for the dynamic duo of Stafford and Cooper Kupp. Stafford continued his high-level performance last season, while Kupp delivered strong games upon returning from injury. However, two new stars emerged, ensuring the Rams maintained one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.

The first breakout star was Puka Nacua. Despite being a fifth-round rookie, Nacua often outperformed Kupp when they shared the field. Nacua set rookie records for receiving yards, and the Rams found another reliable option in the passing game late in the season with Demarcus Robinson.

The second standout was Kyren Williams. Initially, Cam Akers was projected to be the starting running back, but Williams’ impressive play led to Akers being moved early in the season.

Williams showcased his ability to break tackles and catch passes out of the backfield, rushing for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns on 228 carries, with an additional 32 receptions for 206 yards. Despite concerns about his durability, the Rams drafted Blake Corum in the mid-rounds, and he’s already making an impression at OTAs.

Nacua and Williams’ success wouldn’t have been possible without improved blocking. The offensive line, which was a major issue in 2022, made significant strides. Replacing the retired Andrew Whitworth was a challenge, but Alaric Jackson stepped up as an excellent pass protector on Stafford’s blind side, forming a solid tackle duo with Rob Havenstein.

Another key addition to the offensive line was second-round guard Steve Avila, who had a strong rookie season at guard. With Brian Allen gone, Avila will move to center, flanked by two new guards, Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson, both capable blockers, though Jackson’s injury history is a concern.

Aaron Donald’s Absence Will Be Felt

With such an explosive offense, the Rams looked like a promising pick for a deep playoff run. However, Aaron Donald’s retirement has cast a shadow over their prospects. Donald’s absence is a massive blow as he was the best defensive lineman in the NFL.

The Rams sought to replace Donald in the 2024 NFL Draft, using their first two picks on front seven players. The first was Jared Verse, a talented edge rusher from Florida State, who could potentially fill the void left by Donald’s departure.

If Verse meets expectations, he and Byron Young could become a formidable duo. Young, a third-round rookie last year, recorded eight sacks and showed great potential.

Their second pick, Braden Fiske, was chosen to directly replace Donald. He’ll join a new-look defensive line featuring Bobby Brown and Kobie Turner. Brown is a solid run defender, while Turner impressed as a rookie, recording nine sacks as a third-round pick.

In addition to the draft, the Rams bolstered their defense through free agency, focusing on the secondary. Cornerback was a major weakness last year, but with the return of Darious Williams and the acquisition of Tre’Davious White, the unit looks much stronger this season.

Williams, who previously played for the Rams before joining the Jaguars, will be a welcome addition, as will White, despite his injury history. If White can stay healthy, he could provide elite cornerback play, although that remains a significant if. Quentin Lake will continue as the slot corner after a strong performance last season.

The Rams also added Kamren Curl, a standout safety from the Commanders, who will be a significant upgrade. He’ll start alongside third-round rookie Kamren Kinchens if he’s ready, or else Russ Yeast might fill the spot despite struggling last year.

On the defensive side, the Rams will continue to rely on Ernest Jones, who made significant strides last season. He’ll be paired with Christian Rozeboom, though the latter could have been upgraded in the offseason.

Jared Goff Will Not Regress

Surprisingly, the Lions have emerged as one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. They ranked fourth in offensive EPA last year, scoring 31 points twice in the playoffs, including against the 49ers in the NFC Championship.

There’s little reason to expect a drop-off. Jared Goff has revitalized his career in Detroit, earning a $212 million contract. Goff has a strong supporting cast, including one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. The tackle tandem of Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker is Pro Bowl caliber, with Sewell especially standing out as a top blind-side protector.

Detroit’s interior line is equally impressive. Frank Ragnow, when healthy, is an elite center, and guard Graham Glasgow is coming off a stellar season. The team may have upgraded its other guard spot, replacing Jonah Jackson with Kevin Zeitler, formerly of the Ravens.

Amon-Ra St. Brown also earned a hefty $120 million contract this offseason, a fitting reward for one of the NFL’s top possession receivers. While there’s no proven No. 2 wide receiver, rookie tight end Sam LaPorta helped fill the gap last year, and despite C.J. Stroud’s incredible rookie season, LaPorta was a serious contender for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Jahmyr Gibbs, another rookie from last year, dazzled as both a rusher and receiver. Although David Montgomery had more carries, Gibbs was the more effective runner and caught 52 passes out of the backfield. With the coaching staff now fully trusting Gibbs, he’s expected to have a stellar sophomore campaign.

The Detroit Secondary Will Improve

Detroit paired its explosive offense with a defense that excelled at stopping the run and pressuring quarterbacks. However, they struggled to defend the pass, a weakness the front office addressed in the 2024 NFL Draft. They traded up to select Terrion Arnold, a talented cornerback, and followed that by drafting Ennis Rakestraw in the second round.

Between these two and newly acquired Carlton Davis, who is looking to rebound from a down year, the Lions should see significant improvement in their secondary.

In addition to upgrading their secondary, the Lions bolstered their pass rush by signing D.J. Reader, a massive and impactful nose tackle, and Marcus Davenport, a player with an up-and-down career. With Reader and All-Pro Aidan Hutchinson drawing attention, Davenport could thrive.

Hutchinson has emerged as one of the NFL’s top edge rushers, recording 11.5 sacks in his second season. His impact goes beyond the numbers, as he has become a dominant force on the defensive front. Alim McNeill, another standout, continues to develop into one of the better defensive tackles in the league, excelling as both a run-stuffer and a pass-rusher.

Detroit’s linebacking corps also has room for improvement. 2023 first-round pick Jack Campbell had an uneven rookie year, excelling against the run but struggling in coverage. With more experience, he could elevate his game. Alex Anzalone had a solid season, while Derrick Barnes was inconsistent at times.

The Pick

The Lions can contain Williams in this game. The 24-year-old rushed for over 100 yards in five of his last seven regular season games last year before being held to just 61 rushing yards against Detroit in the playoffs.

The Rams’ offense heavily relies on play-action, and if the Lions can shut down the run, it will severely limit Stafford’s effectiveness in the passing game. This would give Detroit’s revamped secondary, featuring Davis and Arnold, straightforward assignments without needing to worry about run support.

Offensively, Detroit can establish the run early and utilize play-action passes with Goff. The powerful duo of Montgomery and Gibbs led Detroit to a top-five rushing offense in every category.

With Donald no longer anchoring the Rams’ defensive line, the Lions’ rushing attack presents a nightmare matchup for Los Angeles.

NFL Pick: Lions -3.5 (-106) at Bookmaker

Lions -3.5 (-106)

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