Rams vs. 49ers Thursday Night Football Pick: Los Angeles Has So Many Weapons

Should San Francisco’s Last Win Impress Us?

Last year’s runner-up, San Francisco is a team that people generally resist betting against because they think highly of it.

While the 49ers entered last week in decline, they rediscovered their winning ways by pummeling the Bears at home. The question emerges: should we revert to thinking highly of the 49ers, such that we should regain our disposition to bet on them, or should we continue to see in them a team that is declining?

My answer is that last week’s win over Chicago should not impress us. That win took place in San Francisco, which is important because Chicago is winless on the road this season. Bears’ quarterback Caleb Williams has been awful on the road, where, compared to what they are at home, his completion rate is close to ten percent lower and his passer rating close to 20 points worse.

San Francisco’s Pass Defense Against Good Quarterbacks

Prior to limiting Caleb Williams, San Francisco’s defense had allowed Green Bay’s Jordan Love and Buffalo’s Josh Allen to have excellent games in which each quarterback far surpassed his season-long passer rating. Good quarterbacks are able to perform well against the 49ers’ defense.

Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford certainly counts as a good quarterback, especially with his wide receivers healthy.

Stafford enters Thursday’s game having thrown ten touchdowns to zero interceptions in his last four games. He’s been highly efficient and productive, most recently throwing for 320 yards and completing 76.7 percent of his passes against Buffalo’s top-ten pass defense.

Stafford’s Matchup Advantage

Not only is Stafford a candidate to do well against San Francisco’s defense because he’s a good quarterback, but we should also expect him to thrive on Thursday because he matches up well against the 49ers.

San Francisco is averse to blitzing. With his wide receivers healthy, Stafford has thrived against defenses that do not blitz a lot. Like the 49ers, Buffalo and Philadelphia rank bottom-four in blitz rate. Stafford’s passer rating against the latter two teams was 132.6 and 104.3, respectively.

Look for Stafford to sit back against San Francisco’s pass coverage and wait for Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to get open. Both wide receivers have been All-Pro selections in large part because they excel at beating coverages and getting open. However, Stafford can also count on Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson for big plays and drive-sustaining catches.

Kyren Williams 

Chicago’s offense also matched up poorly against San Francisco’s defense because the former lacks the personnel to exploit a 49ers run defense that had allowed over 200 rushing yards to Buffalo and over 160 to Green Bay, respectively, in its previous two games.

Whereas Chicago’s running back D’Andre Swift has averaged 3.6 and 2.7 YPC in November and December, respectively, Los Angeles’ Kyren Williams averaged 4.3 YPC in November and is averaging 4.3 YPC in December.

Williams is a strong running back who breaks a lot of tackles and has a nose for the end zone. He has 12 rushing touchdowns on the season and enters Thursday’s contest with a combined total of four rushing touchdowns in his last three games.

He has the sort of strength and elusiveness that made, for example, Tampa Bay running back Bucky Irving too difficult for the 49ers to contain.

Los Angeles’ Scoring Defense 

The Rams have allowed over 30 points twice in their recent competition, which might make San Francisco seem to be a good candidate to score a lot of points on Thursday. However, when the Rams allowed over 30 points to the Bills and Eagles, they were struggling with elite quarterback play — oddsmakers have Buffalo’s Josh Allen as a realistic MVP candidate — and with elite running back play — Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley is also an MVP candidate.

On the season, Los Angeles has allowed 30+ points only to teams with mobile quarterbacks — Arizona, Buffalo and Philadelphia. This makes sense because the strength of its defense is its pass rushers.

Injuries and Inconsistencies

Led by Jared Verse, Los Angeles has been one of the best teams at generating pressure on the opposing quarterback, according to Next Gen Stats. A less mobile quarterback will succumb to all of that pressure.

San Francisco doesn’t have the elite or mobile quarterback — Brock Purdy ranks outside the top ten in yards and passer rating — or the elite running back — San Francisco’s top two running backs are injured and its third, Isaac Guerendo, is banged-up with a foot injury and might not play on Thursday — to take advantage of the Rams’ vulnerabilities on defense. 

Given what the Rams could do to Minnesota and Miami — Miami’s offense even frequently benefited from short field position —, I find it very reasonable to expect the Rams to hold San Francisco to 20-to-23 points, whereas the Rams can score at least 30 points, just like Green Bay and Buffalo did and just like they themselves almost did on September 22 without their two best wide receivers.

Takeaway

The 49ers are not who we had thought they were at the beginning of the season. A win at home over Chicago doesn’t change that, yet they are still favored. They are overvalued by oddsmakers, and they match up poorly with the Rams.

Sizzling Stafford will sit back and find one of multiple excellent wide receivers, while he will receive support from a strong ground game.

Whereas the Rams can exceed 30 points, their pressure-heavy defense will limit a San Francisco team that suffers from insufficient quarterback play and a banged-up running back room to a point total in the low 20s.

NFL Pick: Rams +2 (-115) at BetOnline

Rams +2 (-115)

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