Rams vs. Eagles NFC Divisional Round Picks: Will Saquon Run Wild Again?
- Scott Kacsmar
- January 15, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Under 43.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) are a home win away from returning to the NFC Championship Game. The only thing standing in their way are the Los Angeles Rams (11-7), who upset the Vikings again on Monday night in a 27-9 victory.
But the Rams will have to atone for one of their worst losses this season after they fell 37-20 at home to the Eagles in Week 12 in front of a national audience that watched Saquon Barkley run wild with a pair of 70-yard touchdown runs after halftime.
Barkley will be key, but there are other factors at play here, including the Eagles’ stagnant passing game that barely showed up Sunday against Green Bay, and the difficult matchup for Matthew Stafford and the Rams against this stout defense.
The Eagles are a 6-point home favorite with a total of 43.5 points at many top-rated sportsbooks. We are looking at the spread and total for our best NFL picks in the divisional round.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 19, 2025 – 03:00 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Remembering Week 12
The last time these teams played, it was a 13-7 game at halftime before Saquon Barkley exploded for a 70-yard touchdown on the first snap from scrimmage in the half. He later hit a homerun again with a 72-yard touchdown to finish with a career-high 255 rushing yards, the game that put him on the pace for 2,000 yards.
Obviously, you don’t expect a team to break 2 of the longest touchdown runs of the season in another game. But even if you take those plays out, Barkley still finished with numbers very similar to what he had against Green Bay on Sunday with 119 yards. The Philadelphia offensive line is elite and is fully capable of producing another quality game on the ground against this young front from the Rams, which abused the far inferior Minnesota line.
But this will be the 6th rematch in the NFL playoffs since 1990 between teams where one team rushed for over 250 yards against the other that season. The 7th such matchup will take place hours later Sunday when Derrick Henry and the Ravens meet Buffalo again. So, this is rare, but the previous cases show that a good team can perform at a similar level if the offensive line matchup is that reliable like Philadelphia’s situation is.
In fact, the last time this happened was in 2022 when the Eagles ran wild on the Giants late in the season for 253 yards. Even though they met again in Week 18 with the Giants resting starters, by the time they met in the divisional round again, the Eagles piled up 268 more rushing yards in a 38-7 blowout win.
When you look at the Eagles in 3 rematches this year, they produced very similar rushing totals in both games. We’re leaving out the Week 18 Giants’ rematch since the Eagles rested starters, including the line, Jalen Hurts, and Barkley.
- Eagles’ rushing yards vs. Commanders: 228 and 211
- Eagles’ rushing yards vs. Cowboys: 187 and 179
- Eagles’ rushing yards vs. Packers: 144 and 169
That last example spans from Week 1 in Brazil on a poor field to last Sunday. The numbers are all remarkably close, and the Rams are only 22nd in rushing yards allowed and 26th in yards per carry this season.
Even if the Eagles run for half of the 314 yards they had last time against the Rams, that’s still likely enough to win this game regardless if their passing game wakes up or not.
A.J. Brown: Read Any Good Books?
A viral moment from Sunday’s 22-10 win over Green Bay was when Eagles’ No. 1 wideout A.J. Brown was caught reading a book on the bench during the 4th quarter. He helped the author skyrocket to No. 1 on Amazon in 24 hours, so that’s great publicity.
But Brown had just 1 catch for 10 yards as the Eagles bareley tried to throw in Jalen Hurts’ return from a concussion suffered a few weeks ago against Washington. Maybe they were just being cautious, maybe the Packers deserve more credit on defense than they’re getting, but it was an oddly quiet game for the passing offense despite the weapons they have.
Dallas Goedert showed his strength on a 24-yard touchdown where he kept stiff-arming the same poor defender over and over until he scored. DeVonta Smith is still dangerous too, and Brown is one of the best in the game. It’s hard to imagine Hurts won’t throw more this week, and he’s had success in both of the last 2 years against the Rams’ defense.
Does Vic Fangio Own Sean McVay?
Back in 2018, the Rams had an elite offense with Jared Goff in a season where the team reached the Super Bowl in coach Sean McVay’s 2nd season. But one of their worst games came in prime time late in the year in Chicago, an elite defense coached by famed coordinator Vic Fangio. His defense intercepted Goff 4 times in a 15-6 upset win.
Some felt Fangio laid out a blueprint that night that Bill Belichick followed in the Super Bowl, leading to a 13-3 win over McVay’s Rams. Fangio didn’t face McVay again until this season with the Eagles where he has helped turn this defense around from one of the worst in the league to one of the best this season. Their coverage has been outstanding, but even despite some suboptimal pass pressure metrics, they still sacked Matthew Stafford 5 times in Week 12.
Stafford was stuck on 14 points until the final minutes of the game when he threw a garbage-time touchdown pass to Cooper Kupp to make the final score look a little more respectable at 37-20.
Philadelphia’s defense is elite against the pass, elite in the red zone and on 3rd downs, and it’s barely had any bad games since October. The only real mix up was the day Jayden Daniels threw 5 touchdown passes against them, but otherwise, the Eagles are very hard to score on.
Going Under?
Both of these teams easily hit their unders in the wild card round with the Eagles winning 22-10 and the Rams winning 27-9. They could bring out the best in each other this week, but it’s still desirable to go with the under 43.5 in this matchup.
- The Rams have not allowed more than 9 points in their last 4 starts with starters playing.
- The Rams were stuck on 14 points for most of the last 2 meetings with the Eagles since 2023, including a 2nd-half shutout in 2023 when the Eagles weren’t even a good defense.
- The Rams are an indoor team from LA that will be playing outside in Philly’s cold weather with temperatures expected to be near freezing by the end of the game.
- The over is just 7-11 (38.9%) in Philadelphia games this season, tied for the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
- The over is 2-7 (22.2%) when the Eagles are a home favorite this season.
- If you take away the fumble return touchdown against the Vikings, Matthew Stafford has not led the Rams to more than 20 offensive points in any of his last 4 starts as none of the games finished over 36.5 points.
The Eagles have been one of the best defenses this season with a passing game that disappears at times. The Rams have been one of the best defenses lately with an offense that doesn’t score much these days. Let’s back the under for this playoff rematch and hope there aren’t 70-yard touchdown runs again.
NFL Pick: Under 43.5 (-110) at Bovada
Rams vs. Eagles (-6): Who Covers the Spread?
The Eagles have been one of the best value teams this season with a 12-6 ATS record. Since 2021, the Rams are only 8-8-3 ATS as a road underdog under McVay and Stafford. In that same time, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is 18-10-2 ATS as a home favorite, the 2nd-best record in the NFL. Sirianni is only 3-3 in the playoffs, but he’s 13-1 since 2022 at home against playoff teams. Also, 5-of-6 playoff games he’s coached have been decided by 12-plus points, so he’s not used to playing competitive playoff games.
This is the weekend’s most volatile matchup since you’re never sure which version of their passing games will show up. But the Eagles have the better offensive line, the better defense, home-field advantage, and Barkley is a great go-to in cold weather to wear down the Rams, who have one fewer day to prepare after playing Monday night.
This might look closer to the 23-14 game the teams played in 2023 rather than their 37-20 romp this season. But let’s back the Eagles to cover and advance to another NFC Championship Game.
NFL Pick: Eagles -6 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.