MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-218) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The L.A. Dodgers will be the focus of baseball betting this Thursday night when Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes on the Texas Rangers. Let’s scour the MLB odds boards at the top sportsbooks to find the best bet for the game.
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, June 13, 2024 – 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
It’s a good time to be the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re +300 favorites on the World Series odds board at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) as we go to press, holding down first place in the National League West at 42-26, 7.5 games up on the San Diego Padres.
Then again, if you had bet $100 on every single Dodgers game thus far, you’d be down $146. As well as they’ve played, expectations are high in L.A. Sky-high. It’s going to take something significant to make the Dodgers the right choice for Thursday’s MLB picks.
Oh, look: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.73 xFIP) is starting for Los Angeles. Where do I sign?
Why Should I Bet on the Dodgers?
Because Yoshinobu Yamamoto is pitching. He was already one of the best pitchers in Japanese history at age 25, and after signing with LA last December for 12 years and $325 million (plus the $50.6 million posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes), Yamamoto’s right back at it, posting some of the best numbers on a starting staff that ranks ninth overall in pitching WAR at FanGraphs.
Then again again, if you had bet $100 on each of Yamamoto’s 13 starts, you’d be down $78. That’s because the Dodgers “only” went 8-5. But three of those losses were No Decisions for Yamamoto, and his team record is 7-1 since late April.
There’s still some betting value here, miraculously enough. Yamamoto is a new face on these shores; his 3.00 ERA doesn’t do him justice, and the Dodgers themselves are 42-26 despite having the run differential (plus-105) of a 46-22 team.
Why Should I Bet Against the Rangers?
Because of their starting pitcher. The Rangers themselves aren’t the ideal opponent for our purposes; They’re 31-35 and 6.79 betting units in the red, and only +3000 at Bovada to defend their World Series title – but they also have a zero run differential, so Texas “should” be 33-33 at this point.
Enter Michael Lorenzen (4.57 xFIP). Not to dump on this entirely serviceable starter, but Lorenzen was named an All-Star for the first time in 2023 because the Detroit Tigers had to send somebody. Then they sent him to Philadelphia at the trade deadline; Lorenzen pitched a no-hitter in his first home start for the Phillies, immediately fell into a slump, and had to settle for a one-year deal with Texas this offseason at a mere $4.5 million.
Lorenzen is a bargain, no doubt. But don’t let his 3.05 ERA fool you. That’s the product of a career-low .244 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), and a career-high 84.4% of runners stranded. Regression is coming.
Texas doesn’t have the hitting (No. 16 overall in FanGraphs WAR) to afford it. Despite Lorenzen’s good fortune on the mound, the Rangers are 3-7 in his 10 starts (and 1-7 in his last eight), with the Under also at 3-7. They fell 9-4 to the Oakland A’s (+104 at home) on May 8. They dropped a 4-1 decision to the Los Angeles Angels (+142 away) on May 19. Not a good look.
What About Cavan Biggio?
I couldn’t help but notice the Dodgers scooped up Biggio (.614 OPS) Wednesday morning, after the Toronto Blue Jays designated him for assignment. The super-utility guy posted a .710 OPS for the Jays last year, and we saw occasional flashes here at the ranch, but all those injuries Biggio has accumulated will probably keep him from reaching the potential he showed in 2019 (.793 OPS) and 2020 (.807 OPS).
Be that as it may, Biggio will presumably replace Chris Taylor (.307 OPS), who’s cratered even worse this year, and is four years older than Biggio at age 33. Gavin Lux (.574 OPS) might also lose some at-bats to Biggio if he keeps struggling. Every little bit helps; bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-218) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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