MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a typical 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday with 14 day-games plus Sunday Night Baseball. As usual, we have three best bets for today’s slate at top sportsbooks.
These best bets and the current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. The model likes a side in the Sunday Night Baseball matchup with the Rangers visiting the Orioles.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, June 30, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yard
We foresee an upset on Sunday Night Baseball this week, so we are backing Andrew Heaney and the Rangers when they pay a visit to Cole Irvin and the Orioles.
Coming Back to Earth
Cole Irvin comes in at 6-4 with a 3.74 ERA, but that ERA looks rather fraudulent compared to his 4.27 xFIP. While he is usually in the strike zone with a nice walk rate of 1.75/9, he would certainly be categorized as a contact pitcher given the low 6.31/9 strikeout rate. The problem with that is he has somehow pitched around an ugly soft/hard contact ratio of 11.2% / 35.7% so far, and that ratio should catch up with him.
In fact, Cole’s regression seems to have already begun as he is coming off his two worst starts of the season. He surrendered eight runs on 10 hits in just four innings in his last outing, which came on the heels of allowing five runs in 4.2 innings in his previous start. Given his weak contact ratio and low strikeouts, we expect the ERA to continue to rise in the foreseeable future.
Very Consistent
As for Andrew Heaney, what you see is what you get as he has a nicely aligning 4.17 ERA and 4.16 xFIP through 15 starts and 77.2 innings. While those figures are not earth-shattering, he does have the better xFIP in this matchup and a much better strikeout rate at 8.69/9.
But what we like the most about Andrew is his consistency. You see, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 15 starts and enters this contest with 11 consecutive such outings! Furthermore, he has been a bit better on the road, where he sports a 3.53 ERA, and although he is a southpaw, he has limited right-handed batters to a .251 batting average.
The Pick
With Irvin’s regression quite possibly in progress and Heaney pitching consistently well, bet on the Rangers to pull the upset in Camden Yards Sunday night.
Predicted Score: Rangers 5 – Orioles 4
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+140) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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