Rangers vs. Yankees MLB Best Bet: Texas Lassos Stroman in Upset
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LT Profits
- August 11, 2024
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+128) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are 22-13 in our last 35 plays entering Sunday’s 13-game card of MLB betting matchups including a +136 winner Friday. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds at the top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in the Bronx at 1:35pm ET in the Rangers vs. Yankees matchup Sunday.
And don’t forget to check out our other picks:
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, August 11, 2024 – 01:35 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
Marcus Stroman has been a weak link in the Yankees rotation while Andrew Heaney has been solid for the Rangers and deserves a better record. We are backing Texas on Sunday to pull the upset.
Poor Command
Now 33 years old, Stroman has shown a lot of slippage this season even from just last year despite his winning 7-6 record. We used to be supporters of Stroman because of his vast array of pitches, but that has lost its relevance with his fastball all the way down to 89.7 MPH from 92.0 MPH last season. Thus, he has lost the separation in speed from his fastball to his breaking pitches that made him effective.
The end-result has been a 4.10 ERA and a noticeably worse 4.77 xFIP, which is the sixth highest in baseball among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. He now has a poor K/BB ratio of 6.65/3.79 per nine innings. The low strikeout rate is validated by a swinging strike rate of only 8.4%, which is its lowest since 2015, while the walk rate is the eighth highest in baseball. To make matters worse, Marcus also has an above-average high contact rate of 32.5%.
Very Consistent
Heaney has been very unfortunate to go 4-11 considering he has a 3.98 ERA while almost always giving the Rangers a chance to win. You see, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 19 of his 22 starts while allowing four earned runs in two other outings. His last start was par for the course, as he allowed just one run on a solo home run in six innings yet only garnered a no-decision.
So, the poor record is almost entirely due to a lack of run support, which is rather surprising for a decent Texas offense. However, we do not expect that to be an issue today with Stroman as his mound opponent. And Heaney easily has the better command ratio here with a K/BB ratio of 8.66/2.50 per nine innings over 115.1 frames.
The bottom line is that both pitchers have deceptive W/L records for opposite reasons. We expect Heaney to finally get the support he deserves here and are betting the Rangers as nice underdogs in the Bronx.
Predicted Score: Rangers 5 – Yankees 4
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+128) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
