Ravens vs. Bills AFC Divisional Round Pick: Could the Weather Slow Things Down?

Remember when the AFC Championship Game was considered the “real” Super Bowl? We don’t even have to wait that long anymore; Sunday’s Divisional Round tilt between the Baltimore Ravens (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) and Buffalo Bills (14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS) features two of the three best teams in the NFL – according to the nfelo rankings. They have Baltimore on top, 3.7 points ahead of the No. 3 Bills on neutral ground.

They’ll be in Orchard Park this Sunday, so please forgive us if we’re not too keen on either side of the point spread, where the Ravens are laying one point at press time after opening as a pick’em. Instead, we’ve got the Under at -108 NFL odds in our Divisional NFL picks; there’s a 51.5-point total on the board at Heritage at a friendly -108 juice as we go to press. D-Von… get the tables~!

Are the Ravens Better Than the Bills?

Hard to say. They finished the regular season tied for the AFC lead with exactly the same point differential at plus-157, and their combined scores were eerily similar: 518-361 for the Ravens, and 525-368 for the Bills.

Having said that, Baltimore put up these numbers while playing a tougher schedule, as per Pro Football Reference:

• Ravens: plus-0.6 SoS (No. 4 in the AFC)
• Bills: minus-1.1 (No. 11)

This is why the Ravens are road favorites this Sunday. When you factor in Strength of Schedule and whatnot, the advanced stats at nfelo say Baltimore has outperformed Buffalo this year, generating a league-leading plus-0.27 EPA (Expected Points Added) per play. The Bills are in fourth place at plus-0.19 EPA.

So if the Ravens are indeed 3.7 points better than Buffalo, but you give the Bills 1.79 points for home-field advantage, as per Jeff Sagarin’s league average, that gives you… let’s see, carry the one… Baltimore -1.91 as a plausible projection.

Here’s the thing: Maybe Buffalo would have generated better numbers than Baltimore if the regular season had been a bit longer or a bit shorter. There’s always some ebb and flow to the season as players come on and off the injured list, then slip in and out of The Zone, but there’s also a lot more randomness in pro sports than people care to admit – especially when you’re handling that prolate spheroid. Speaking of which…

Is This a Snow Game?

Maybe not. Sunday’s forecast at AccuWeather calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the high teens. Conditions are much worse right now, though: There’s a lake-effect snow warning in… effect. And it’s supposed to stay fairly miserable between now and the weekend.

We can’t say for sure what the conditions will be at game time, but we’re spooked enough to run far, far away from the Over, despite Sagarin’s projection of 55.96 points for this matchup. Watch out for those numbers now; each team may have put up elite stats this year on offense while playing league-average defense, but it’s the playoffs now, and go figure, the Under went 5-1 during the Wild Card Round, including Pittsburgh-Baltimore (Under 45) and Denver-Buffalo (Under 49).

The Pick

Our accounting department here at the ranch is also pleased to get the Under at 51.5 (-108), a bargain price when other online sportsbooks have the total at 51 and the juice as high as -113. And we would be remiss if we didn’t mention that 51 is one of the key “magic” numbers for NFL totals; that half-point between 51 and 51.5 is worth roughly nine cents in vig according to Wizard of Odds. Bet accordingly.

NFL Pick: Under 51.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports 

Under 51.5 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.