Ravens vs. Buccaneers Monday Night Football Picks: The Soggy Under Boys

Despite the Storms, the Offense Reigns

Apparently, there is still some offense happening out there. The Under was 40-37 across the NFL odds board heading into Week 6, but the Over went on a 10-3 rampage – including our Monday Night Football pick, which saw the Buffalo Bills beat the New York Jets 23-20 (Over 42 at the close) like nature intended.

Speaking of nature, she did a number on the Gulf Coast last week. Right after Hurricane Helene bashed Florida’s Big Bend region (where the Panhandle meets the Peninsula), Hurricane Milton touched down near Siesta Key on October 9, causing north of $30 billion in damage.

While Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg had its roof torn apart, Raymond James Stadium in Tampa was left underwater – or at least the playing surface was. Friday’s college football game between the USF Bulls and Memphis was postponed to Saturday, then moved to Orlando; Monday night’s tilt between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens is still on as we go to press.

So why isn’t everyone falling over themselves to put the Under in their Week 7 NFL picks? Monday’s total opened at 47, but now it’s 49.5 at multiple online sportsbooks, including BetOnline. Our early consensus reports at BMR show 97 percent support for the Over. Sheesh.

Is Scoring Down in the NFL?

Not any more. Thanks to last week’s outburst, the average NFL team is scoring 22.5 points per game this year, up from 21.8 PPG last year. We’re still well below the 2020 peak of 24.8, but maybe we should treat that as a COVID-19 anomaly, with so many players in sick bay that year.

If it seems like scoring is down, that’s because it’s way harder out there for receivers. Defensive backs are getting away with all sorts of kung fu (I’m seeing 7-Star Northern praying mantis techniques out there on the field, I kid you not) to keep receivers from closing their hands and arms around the football, not to mention the usual pushing and grabbing that officials are letting go. No wonder receiving touchdowns are down to 1.36 per game per team, the lowest since 2008.

What About Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust?

Indeed, rushing touchdowns are up to 0.95 per game this year – the highest non-pandemic total since 1988, when Eric Dickerson and Ickey Woods still roamed the landscape. Maybe that’s why so many people wanted the Over for this matchup; Ravens RB Derrick Henry already has eight rushing touchdowns after six games, and the Over is 5-1 for Baltimore.

Or maybe it was the 51 points Tampa Bay (Over 4-2) dropped on the New Orleans Saints last week. That was enough to blow out their 42-point total all by themselves, although the Saints did contribute 27 points of their own. In any case, you’ve got two of the NFL’s Top 10 offenses in action Monday night, with fair-to-middling defenses at best, on what’s supposed to be a relatively nice evening weather-wise. Wait, why are we taking the Under again?

The Pick

Oh, right, Hurricane Milton. Sometimes you just have to go with the flow; the Bucs insist that Raymond James Stadium only received “cosmetic” damage last week, but that field was definitely underwater for some period of time. These two teams will also have several logistical hurdles to clear off the field if they’re going to play this game on Monday night. Bet accordingly, stay dry, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Under 49.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Under 49.5 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.