Ravens vs. Chargers Monday Night Football Pick: Join the Khakistocracy
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Jason Lake
- November 21, 2024
NFL Pick: Chargers +3 (–118) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We shouldn’t have expected anything less from Jim Harbaugh. Everywhere Harbaugh goes as a head coach, they win, from the University of San Diego (two-time Pioneer League champions) all the way to last year’s CFP title team at Michigan. Why should the Los Angeles Chargers be any different?
Okay, so they’re the Chargers. It’s been 30 years of pain since they got humiliated at their lone Super Bowl appearance, but this is already a much better team since Harbaugh took the reins this offseason. And these particular Bolts (7-3 SU and ATS) are an easy choice for our Week 12 Monday Night Football picks as 3-point home dogs at Bookmaker, with the slumping Baltimore Ravens (7-4 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) supplying the opposition.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, November 25, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Are the Chargers Going to Charge Again?
That’s what everyone was asking last Sunday night. The Chargers stormed to a 24-6 lead at halftime and added another field goal before the Cincinnati Bengals started clawing back. The next thing you know, it’s 27-27, and everyone’s losing their minds.
Not a problem. Unlike previous meltdowns, this one didn’t doom our heroes; the Bengals missed a couple of field goals, and tailback J.K. Dobbins found a seam to give L.A. the 34-27 win as 1-point home faves. That’s 4-0 SU and ATS for the Chargers since Week 8.
They’re also 5-1 SU and ATS since LT Rashawn Slater and RT Joe Alt rejoined the offensive line. You may have noticed how good QB Justin Herbert looks lately; that’s in part because he only got sacked twice by Cincinnati, and zero times in their previous 27-17 win over Tennessee (+8 away). Combine with the fifth-best defense in the league at minus-0.12 EPA (Expected Points Added) per play, and you’ve got a classic Harbaugh team in action.
How Bad Is Baltimore’s Defense?
Not as bad as you might think. Jim’s older brother John is getting all sorts of grief these days for how bad the Ravens defense has played, and sure enough, they’re No. 20 overall at plus-0.02 on the EPA charts at nfelo. But they’re also third against the rush at minus-0.18 EPA per play, so it’s not all doom and gloom in Baltimore.
That pass rush (plus-0.10 EPA, No. 19) is still pretty bad, though. And Baltimore’s special teams aren’t helping; PK Justin Tucker had another rough game last week, going 1-for-3 on figgies in their 18-16 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (+3 at home). Tucker turns 35 on Thursday – Happy Birthday! Now the Carousel awaits you.
The Steelers and Chargers have been playing at roughly the same level this year, so they’re fittingly both 3-point home dogs against Baltimore. It’s almost uncanny how the advanced stats line up for their splits on offense and defense, against the run and the pass; whatever vexed the Ravens in Week 11 is likely to continue in Week 12, except indoors this time.
The Pick
You might not get this price on the Chargers for much longer. Their juice at +3 has moved from –105 at the open, with the consensus reports at BMR showing 67% support for the Chargers. Some online sportsbooks have already bumped L.A. down to +2.5.
The public money charts we’re following at the home office say both these teams are pulling in roughly the same amount of action, so maybe we won’t get a late rush of Lamar Jackson money after all.
Get the Bolts +3 while you can, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Chargers +3 (–118) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
