MLB Pick: Rays ML (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday with all MLB teams in action. After going 13-6-1 in our last 20 plays, we are back with three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These plays and the latest MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in Kansas City, where our model favors a side when the Rays visit the Royals.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, July 03, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
The Rays have been steadily moving up in the AL wild card race by winning their last four series. We are betting on them to continue their charge Wednesday with Ryan Pepiot visiting Michael Wacha and the Royals.
Undervalued?
Pepiot has been a solid addition to the Tampa Bay rotation after spending his first two Major League seasons with the Dodgers, despite sitting at only 4-4 with a 4.40 ERA. That is because his xFIP is noticeably better at 3.72 and he grades out to an excellent Stuff+ rating of 118 overall, keyed by a fastball rated at 114 and a slider rated a better 121, making him a significant factor in the American League odds.
That lethal fastball/slider combo is generating an excellent strikeout rate of 10.42/9 over 14 starts covering 71.2 innings. Those innings are already a career-high after Ryan split his first two seasons between the rotation and the bullpen with LA, and the 26-year-old is proving he can maintain his “stuff” with the added workload. That is further evidenced by his good 12.4% swinging-strike rate.
Worse xFIP
Wacha enters at just 4-6 with a 3.91 ERA despite pitching for an improved Kansas City team currently in a wild card spot. He has the higher xFIP in this matchup at 4.08 with a rather modest K/BB ratio of 7.70/2.64 per nine innings.
Michael lags well behind Pepiot in Stuff+ at 91 with his only Plus-rated pitch being his change-up. He does not have a particularly high groundball rate at 38.8% and his swinging-strike rate has now dipped into the single-digits to 9.8% from 10.7% last season.
And while the Rays are below average against righties in wRC+ for the season at 96, they have resembled the great Tampa Bay offense of last year since June 1st, with that figure at a hefty 117.
The Pick
Despite the ERAs of these starters, we feel it is Pepiot that grades out better peripherally. Add in the Tampa Bay offense more closely resembling the 2023 edition over the past month and back the Rays on the road Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Rays 6 – Royals 4
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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